Think Financial Markets - Excellence In Trading Financial Markets

Think Financial Markets - Excellence In Trading Financial Markets

Market Sentiment

It is essential that we have a general feeling of which direction our market may trade on any given day.

To achieve this it is necessary to be aware of how global markets have performed on the previous day as well as during the night.

We measure this sentiment by allocating points to certain global indicies to measure their strength or weakness.

We look firstly to The Dow Jones Index. This index is one of the world’s most influential and as such rates very highly in determining the daily sentiment.

We allocate between 2 pts plus or minus if the overnight movement is less than 50pts or 4pts if over 50pts

The next most important indicator is the SPI200 which is the futures contract covering the Australian markets top 200 stocks and trades almost 24hours per day.

We also allocate between 2 and 4 pts as per the Dow.

Then we add both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 indicies from the U.S they are allocated points as follows

Nasdaq above /below 30 ,plus or minus 2pts or less than 30, 1pt

S&P 500 above /below 15, plus or minus 2pts or less than 15, 1pt

Next we add the FTSE 100 results from England and the NIKKEI 250 from Japan which are allocated 1pt for a plus or minus result.

The maximum points on our table are 14 and variations of this will gauge bullish or bearish sentiment.

Other very important overnight markets to be taken into consideration when trading the Australian market are firstly the strength or weakness in the Aussie dollar versus the US dollar and we rarely have a good day if the commodity markets have been sold down during the night.


Friday, June 29, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow -5 =-2
Nas +3 = 1
S&P -1 =-1
Ftse +44 = 1
Nik +83 = 1
ASX Futures +24 = 1

Market Sentiment = +1

Thursday, June 28, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow +90 =4
Nas +31 =2
S&P +13 =1
Ftse -32 =-1
Nik -217 =-1
ASX Futures +44 =1

Market Sentiment = +6

Wednesday, June 27, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow -15 = -2
Nas -3 =-1
S&P -5 =-1
Ftse -29 =-1
Nik -21 =-1
ASX Futures -32 =-1

Market Sentiment = -7

Tuesday, June 26, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow -8=-2
Nas 12=-1
S&P -5=-1
Ftse +21= 1
Nik -101=-1
ASX Futures +3= 1

Market Sentiment = -3

Sunday, June 24, 2007

Packer's Game Play

The gaming industry has faced some challeges recently with smoking bans, regulatory changes, and new betting exchanges. The main ASX listed players are TTS, TAH and James Packer's PBL. In less than 18 months after the death of Kerry Packer, his son James has transformed the family business stearing it towards becoming a major global gaming powerhouse with casino purchases in Macau, Canada and Las Vegas.

James Packer's plan may be on a solid growth path. According to a PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP report released this week, global gambling revenue is estimated to hit $144 billion in 2011 after growing at an annually compounded rate of 7.2% a year, driven by new casinos and upgrades of existing casinos in all regions of the world, the report said.

Revenue in the U.S. is expected to grow 6.7% a year to $79.6 billion from $57.5 billion, while in the Asia Pacific region it is forecast to grow 15.7% annually to $30.3 billion from $14.6 billion, becoming the world's second largest casino market.

US Dollar Under Threat From China's Yuan

The US has stepped up its pressure on the People's Bank of China to revalue the yuan yet again. Why is the US concerned about China's currency?
This may be one reason. If the yuan continues to be nudged higher at the rate it has risen over the past year, the US dollar will have fallen 25 per cent by the middle of 2011 and 50 per cent by mid-2019. A 50 per cent fall by the US dollar means the yuan's value would have doubled in US dollar terms, marking a major loss of competitiveness but a major increase in China's purchasing power.
Those who have watched the relationship between the US dollar and the price of Gold, as the US dollar falls, Gold and the Euro have risen, will no doubt take a liking to precious metal.

Saturday, June 23, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow -185=-4
Nas -28=-1
S&P -20=-2
Ftse -29=-1
Nik -52=-1
ASX Futures -66=-1

Market Sentiment = -10

Friday, June 22, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow +56 =4
Nas +17 =1
S&P +9 =1
Ftse -53 =-1
Nik 29 =1
ASX Futures +10 =1

Market Sentiment = +7

Thursday, June 21, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow -146 =-4
Nas -27 =-1
S&P -21 =-2
Ftse -1 =-1
Nik 48 =1
ASX Futures -47 =-1

Market Sentiment = -8

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow +22 =2
Nas +1 =1
S&P +3 =1
Ftse -53 =-1
Nik +14 =1
ASX Futures +9 =1

Market Sentiment = +5

Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Market Sentiment 19/06/2007

Dow -27= -2 Nas -1= -1
S&P -2= -1
Ftse -29= -1
Nik +178= +1
ASX Futures -23= -1

Market Sentiment = -5

Saturday, June 16, 2007

Market Sentiment 18/06/2007

Dow +86 =4
Nas +27 =1
S&P +10 =1
Ftse +83 =1
Nik +129 =1
ASX Futures +40 =1

Market Sentiment = +9

Friday, June 15, 2007

Market Sentiment 15/06/2007

Dow +71 =4
Nas +17 =1
S&P +7 =1
Ftse +90 =1
Nik -110 =1
ASX Futures +30 =1

Market Sentiment = +9

Thursday, June 14, 2007

Market Sentiment 14/06/2007

Dow +187 =4
Nas +33 =2
S&P +23 =2
Ftse +39 =1
Nik -28 =-1
ASX Futures +64 =1

Market Sentiment = +9

Wednesday, June 13, 2007

Market Sentiment 13/6/2007

Dow -130=-44
Nas -22=-1
S&P -16=-2
Ftse -47=-1
Nik -73=-1
ASX Futures -79=-1

Market Sentiment = -10

Tuesday, June 12, 2007

Market Sentiment 12/06/2007

Dow +1 =2
Nas -1 =1
S&P +1 =1
Ftse +62 =1
Nik +55 =1
ASX Futures +56 =1

Market Sentiment = +5

Monday, June 11, 2007

Market Sentiment 11/6/2007

Dow +158 =4
Nas +32 =2
S&P +17 =2
Ftse +1 =1
Nik -274 =-1
ASX Futures +29 =1

Market Sentiment = +9

Saturday, June 9, 2007

US Stocks Rebound, Base Metals Slide Admid Inflation Fears

US stocks rebounded Friday finishing up 157 points, its biggest one day gain in 2 months, after heavy falls in previous three sessions racked up losses of 410 points.

US stocks were also helped by falling oil prices.

Comments by Chicago Fed President Michael Moscow gave some insight into the state of the US economy. "economic growth should return to trend levels this year, and with the job market still surprisingly strong the biggest riskis still that inflation will not fall as expected." "I would still like to see inflation lower, for now, though, inflation expectations seem well contained," he said.

In other news the US trade deficit shrank much more than expected in April to $58.5 billion, raising hopes for stronger economic growth

Base metals were hit hard after a selloff on the London Metal Exchange was sparked by fears of a China slowdown.

Some countries are fighting to keep inflation under control, The European Central Bank, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and South Africa's central bank raised interest rates this week.

Friday, June 8, 2007

Calculating a Stop Loss

A quick calculation that may help protect your capital in the market.

If you trade or invest always use a stop loss.

Calculating a stop loss - loss limit $400

Example: purchased 1000 FXJ at $4.70 Cost $4700
Maximum loss limit $400
$4700 less $400 = $4300 divided by 1000 shares = a stock price of $4.30.

If FXJ's stock price falls to $4.30 your loss limit has been reached.

Your stop loss would go at $4.30 (excludes brokerage costs)

Market Sentiment 08/06/2007

Dow -199 =-4
Nas -46 =-1
S&P -27 =-1
Ftse -18 =-1
Nik +12 =+1
ASX Futures -91 =-1

Market Sentiment = -9

Thursday, June 7, 2007

Market Sentiment for 07/06/2007

Dow -130 =-4
Nas -24 =-1
S&P -14 =-1
Ftse -110 =-1
Nik -13 =-1
ASX Futures -77 =-1
Market Sentiment =-9

Wednesday, June 6, 2007

Market Sentiment for 06/06/2007

Dow -81 =-4
Nas -7 =-1
S&P -8 =-1
Ftse -31 =-1
Nik +80 =+1
ASX Futures -29 =-1

Market Sentiment = -7

Tuesday, June 5, 2007

Market Sentiment for 05/06/2007

Dow +8 =2
Nas +4 =1
S&P +3 =1
Ftse -13 =-1
Nik +15 =1
ASX Futures -1 =-1

Market Sentiment = +3

Market Sentiment for 05/06/2007

Dow +8 =2
Nas +4 =1
S&P +3 =1
Ftse -13 =-1
Nik +15 =1
ASX Futures -1 =-1

Market Sentiment = +3

Sunday, June 3, 2007

The China Bubble?

The China stockmarket has been the focus of most reports lately, with headlines and comments such as "Stockmarket up 50% for the year", "China stocks trading at 50 price earning ratios (PE)" "The China Equity Bubble".

Hang on.. the PE figures quoted in reports are last years figures, currently Chinese stocks are sitting at forward PEs of about 25 for 2007 full year and expected forward PEs for full year 2008 are 20.

Now compare that to the Australian full year (FY) 07 PE of 17 and forward FY08 of 16, and the US current FY07 of 17 and forward FY08 of 15, the China figures while still higher, hardly suggest a bubble, in a country that has one of the highest savings records in the world and a population of around 1.3 billion.

While we are on popluation figures, this week comments were reported that the China sharemarket saw trading accounts opened top 100 000 million, and the population of China is....?

Last week I heard on the radio, one comment that made sense, "China stocks have recovered 50% of their February falls. Now any chartist or fund manager that has ever heard of Fibonacci retractment numbers and /or W.D.Gann's 50% rule would take note of possible resistance levels.

Saturday, June 2, 2007

Market Sentiment for 04/06/2007

Dow +40 =2
Nas +9 =1
S&P +6 =1
Ftse +55 =1
Nik +83 =1
ASX Futures +3 =1

Market Sentiment = +7

Friday, June 1, 2007

Market Sentiment for 01/06/2007

Dow -5 =-2
Nas +12 =1
S&P +1 =1
Ftse +19 =1
Nik +287 =1
ASX Futures +8 =1

Market Sentiment = +3