Think Financial Markets - Excellence In Trading Financial Markets

Think Financial Markets - Excellence In Trading Financial Markets

Market Sentiment

It is essential that we have a general feeling of which direction our market may trade on any given day.

To achieve this it is necessary to be aware of how global markets have performed on the previous day as well as during the night.

We measure this sentiment by allocating points to certain global indicies to measure their strength or weakness.

We look firstly to The Dow Jones Index. This index is one of the world’s most influential and as such rates very highly in determining the daily sentiment.

We allocate between 2 pts plus or minus if the overnight movement is less than 50pts or 4pts if over 50pts

The next most important indicator is the SPI200 which is the futures contract covering the Australian markets top 200 stocks and trades almost 24hours per day.

We also allocate between 2 and 4 pts as per the Dow.

Then we add both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 indicies from the U.S they are allocated points as follows

Nasdaq above /below 30 ,plus or minus 2pts or less than 30, 1pt

S&P 500 above /below 15, plus or minus 2pts or less than 15, 1pt

Next we add the FTSE 100 results from England and the NIKKEI 250 from Japan which are allocated 1pt for a plus or minus result.

The maximum points on our table are 14 and variations of this will gauge bullish or bearish sentiment.

Other very important overnight markets to be taken into consideration when trading the Australian market are firstly the strength or weakness in the Aussie dollar versus the US dollar and we rarely have a good day if the commodity markets have been sold down during the night.


Monday, December 31, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow 6=+2
Nasdaq -2=-1
S&P 500 +2=+1
Ftse -21=-1
Nikkei -257=-1
Futures -3=-1

Market Sentiment -1

Friday, December 28, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow -192=-4
Nasdaq -48=-2
S&P 500 -21=-2
Ftse 19=+1
Nikkei -89=-1
Futures -81=-1

Market Sentiment -9

U.S. stocks dropped on Thursday as
an assassination in Pakistan sparked fears of global unrest, while an
analyst warning of larger mortgage-related write-offs pressured
financial shares.

Thursday, December 27, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow 99=+4
Nasdaq 22=+2
S&P 500 12=+2
Ftse 45=+1
Nikkei 29=+1
Futures n/a

Market Sentiment +10

Monday, December 24, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow 205=+4
Nasdaq 51=+2
S&P 500 24=+2
Ftse 89=+1
Nikkei 225=+1
Futures 44=+1

Market Sentiment +11

Friday, December 21, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow 2=+2
Nasdaq 40=+2
S&P 500 7=+1
Ftse 61=+1
Nikkei 1=+1
Futures 13=+1

Market Sentiment +8

THE Australian sharemarket closed in the red yesterday for the seventh consecutive session as cautious investors remained sidelined over concerns about the global credit outlook.

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow -25=-2
Nasdaq 5=+1
S&P 500 -2=-1
Ftse 5=+1
Nikkei -177=-1
Futures -22=-1

Market Sentiment -3

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow 65=+4
Nasdaq 22=+1
S&P 500 9=+1
Ftse 2=+1
Nikkei -42=-1
Futures 29=+1

Market Sentiment 7

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow -173=-4
Nasdaq -61=-2
S&P 500 -22=-2
Ftse -119=-1
Nikkei -264=-1
Futures -84=-1

Market Sentiment -11

THE Australian sharemarket plunged 3.5 per cent yesterday after a profit downgrade from Centro Properties Group caused the biggest one-day fall in four months and wiped $53 billion from the value of the bourse.

Monday, December 17, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow -178=-4
Nasdaq -33=-2
S&P 500 -20=-2
Ftse 33=+1
Nikkei -22=-1
Futures -58=-1

Market Sentiment -9

The Australian stock market is expected to open lower on Monday after United States markets were pushed down on Friday by higher-than-expected inflation figures.
"I expect the Australian stock market to open well down on Monday, down about 60 points, after significant falls by US markets following the release of higher-than-expected consumer price inflation figures which damped investor expectations for further interest rate cuts early in 2008," MFS Investment Management Ltd chief executive Guy Hutchings said.

Friday, December 14, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow 48=+2
Nasdaq -3=-1
S&P 500 2=+1
Ftse -196=-1
Nikkei -396=-1
Futures -2=-1

Market Sentiment -1

Thursday, December 13, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow 41=+2
Nasdaq 19=+1
S&P 500 9=+1
Ftse 23=+1
Nikkei -112=-1
Futures 4=+1

Market Sentiment 5

Wall Street investors encountered erratic trading, with the Dow 175 points higher at one stage and then falling back to be 60 points in deficit before finishing in front.
It follows yesterday's wipeout of 294 points and the key index rose 41 points.
The S&P 500 added 9 and the Nasdaq Composite 19.
News that the Federal Reserve has taken further steps to ease the credit crunch at one stage looked to be good for the market but then the rot set in the last hour of business.
The Fed has joined with four other major central banks to announce a series of measures designed to inject added cash into global money markets in hopes of thawing a credit freeze that threatens their economies.

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow -294=-4
Nasdaq -67=-2
S&P 500 -38=-2
Ftse -29=-1
Nikkei 120=+1
Futures -104=-1

Market Sentiment -9

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow 101=+4
Nasdaq 13=+1
S&P 500 11=+2
Ftse 11=+1
Nikkei -32=-1
Futures 33=+1

Market Sentiment 8

THE Australian sharemarket finished down slightly yesterday in generally quiet trading as investors sat tight ahead of a US Federal Reserve meeting this week.

Monday, December 10, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow 6=+2
Nasdaq -3=-1
S&P 500 -3-1
Ftse 69=+1
Nikkei 82=+1
Futures 2=+1

Market Sentiment 3

BANKING majors including Goldman Sachs, UBS and JP Morgan are sniffing around BHP Billiton, speculating that a merger with Rio Tinto might lead BHP to float or sell off its petroleum assets into a separate $80 billion company.

Rio has no petroleum interests and its chief executive Tom Albanese is unimpressed with oil and gas.

Markets are speculating that BHP could combine its Australian petroleum assets with those of Woodside.

With BHP's petroleum operations valued at about $50 billion and Woodside's market capitalisation of more than $30 billion, the combined company, at $80 billion, would be among Australia's largest.

"The majors are just salivating that this could come off," said one Perth-based analyst who asked not to be named.

"It would rank in the top 20 of global oil and gas businesses and give Australia real clout."

In a merged BHP/Rio, the petroleum division would account for only around 10 per cent of the total combined business.

One possibility being discussed is an initial public offering that would have BHP, Woodside and Shell, a 34 per cent shareholder in Woodside, as foundation investors with a proportion of the entity listed on the Australian stock exchange.

Friday, December 7, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow 144=+4
Nas 41=+2
S&P 22=+2
Ftse -8=-1
Nik 265=+1
Futures -9=+1
Market Sentiment 7

Thursday, December 6, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow 196=+4
Nas 47=+2
S&P 21=+1
Ftse 179=+1
Nik 129=+1
Futures 33=+1
Market Sentiment 11

Wednesday, December 5, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow -64=-4
Nas -17=-1
S&P -10=-1
Ftse -71=-1
Nik -149=-1
Futures -27=-1
Market Sentiment -9
AFTER a day of fluctuations - down 30 points, up five - the sharemarket finished just about square for the second day in a row, except yesterday it closed slightly lower , dragged down by the two big miners.

Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow -57=-4
Nas -23=-1
S&P -9=-1
Ftse -46=-1
Nik -52=-1
Futures -20=-1
Market Sentiment -9

Monday, December 3, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow 60=+4
Nas -7=-1
S&P 11=+1
Ftse 83=+1
Nik 167=+1
Futures -7=-1
Market Sentiment +5
THE Australian stockmarket is expected to open flat today, with little direction from Wall Street as US investors grapple with the probability of another interest rate cut.