Think Financial Markets - Excellence In Trading Financial Markets
Market Sentiment
It is essential that we have a general feeling of which direction our market may trade on any given day.
To achieve this it is necessary to be aware of how global markets have performed on the previous day as well as during the night.
We measure this sentiment by allocating points to certain global indicies to measure their strength or weakness.
We look firstly to The Dow Jones Index. This index is one of the world’s most influential and as such rates very highly in determining the daily sentiment.
We allocate between 2 pts plus or minus if the overnight movement is less than 50pts or 4pts if over 50pts
The next most important indicator is the SPI200 which is the futures contract covering the Australian markets top 200 stocks and trades almost 24hours per day.
We also allocate between 2 and 4 pts as per the Dow.
Then we add both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 indicies from the U.S they are allocated points as follows
Nasdaq above /below 30 ,plus or minus 2pts or less than 30, 1pt
S&P 500 above /below 15, plus or minus 2pts or less than 15, 1pt
Next we add the FTSE 100 results from England and the NIKKEI 250 from Japan which are allocated 1pt for a plus or minus result.
The maximum points on our table are 14 and variations of this will gauge bullish or bearish sentiment.
Other very important overnight markets to be taken into consideration when trading the Australian market are firstly the strength or weakness in the Aussie dollar versus the US dollar and we rarely have a good day if the commodity markets have been sold down during the night.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Market Sentiment 30th September 2009
Nasdaq -6 = -1
S&P 500 -2 = -1
Ftse -6 = -1
Nikkei 90 = 1
Futures -12 = -2
Market Sentiment -6
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Market Sentiment 29th September 2009
Nasdaq 39 = 2
S&P 500 18 = 2
Ftse 86 = 1
Nikkei -256 = -1
Futures 56 = 4
Market Sentiment 12
Wall Street rose on on the back of mergers and acquisitions despite economic activity slipping in August from weakness in the labour market.
Monday, September 28, 2009
Market Sentiment 28th September 2009
Nasdaq -16 = -1
S&P 500 -6 = -1
Ftse 2 = 1
Nikkei -278 = -1
Futures -20 = -2
Market Sentiment -6
US stocks fell on weak housing and durable goods data. Australian Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens said "Australia's mid-term prospects remained good."
Friday, September 25, 2009
Market Sentiment 25th September 2009
Nasdaq -23 = -1
S&P 500 -10 = -1
Ftse -60 = -1
Nikkei 173 = 1
Futures -50 = -2
Market Sentiment -6
Wall Street fell on concerns the Federal Reserve will start winding back some of the stimulus measures starting with reducing the number of purchases of mortgage debt.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Market Sentiment 24th September 2009
Nasdaq -14 = -1
S&P 500 -10 = -1
Ftse -3 = -1
Nikkei N/A = 0
Futures -28 = -2
Market Sentiment -9
The US Federal Reserve left interest rates on hold, however Wall Street fell on concerns of the lack of information from the Fed regarding its purchases of mortgages and government debt which will effect longer term rates.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Market Sentiment 23rd September 2009
Nasdaq 8 = 1
S&P 500 7 = 1
Ftse 8 = 1
Nikkei N/A = 0
Futures 19 = 2
Market Sentiment 9
The US dollar fell to 1 year lows which saw a rally in metal prices, however concern of high inventories of metals put the brakes on the advance. Wall Street was higher as the market waits for the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates and more importantly its current view of the US economy.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Market Sentiment 22nd September 2009
Nasdaq 5 = 1
S&P 500 -3 = -1
Ftse -29 = -1
Nikkei N/A = 0
Futures -15 = -2
Market Sentiment -5
Wall Street was lower as investors wait for the Federal Reserve meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. Also the G20 Leaders meet Thursday and Friday to review the global economy and responses to the financial crisis.
Monday, September 21, 2009
Market Sentiment 21st September 2009
Nasdaq 6 = 1
S&P 500 2 = 1
Ftse 8 = 1
Nikkei -73 = -1
Futures 7 = 1
Market Sentiment 5
The Australian market is currently down 7 points following a flat Wall Street lead.
Friday, September 18, 2009
Market Sentiment 18th September 2009
Nasdaq -6 = -1
S&P 500 -3 = -1
Ftse 39 = 1
Nikkei 173 = 1
Futures = -2
Market Sentiment -4
Wall Street eased, but is still up 178 on the week, despite encouraging factory output and building starts data.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Market Sentiment 17th September 2009
Nasdaq 30 = 2
S&P 500 16 = 2
Ftse 82 = 1
Nikkei 53 = 1
Futures 53 = 4
Market Sentiment 14
Wall Street rose on news US production gained 0.8% in August, European markets were also higher fueling signs that the global economic recovery is gathering pace. Gold hit an 18 month high, the US Dollar fell to a 12 month low, and Oil was higher.
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Market Sentiment 16th September 2009
Nasdaq 10 = 1
S&P 500 3 = 1
Ftse 23 = 1
Nikkei -65 = -1
Futures 21 = 2
Market Sentiment 8
Its over, according to Fed Chairman Bernanke the US recession is over. Markets rose on his words and some positive economic data. Producer prices rose 1.7% in August and retail sale were also up 2.7%.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Market Sentiment 15th September 2009
Nasdaq 10 = 1
S&P 500 6 = 1
Ftse 7 = 1
Nikkei -242 = -1
Futures 46 = 2
Market Sentiment 6
Wall Street rose slightly, investors showed caution as a US trade dispute with China begins to bubble regarding tariffs on tyres, chicken and auto parts.
Telstra announced it will work with the Australian government after the government moved to introduce reforms to break up the Telco.
The massive Gorgon gas project off the coast of Western Australia has received final approval and work will commence immediately with contracts awarded within weeks.
Monday, September 14, 2009
Market Sentiment 14th September 2009
Nasdaq -3 = -1
S&P 500 -1 = -1
Ftse 23 = 1
Nikkei -69 = -1
Futures -4 = -2
Market Sentiment -6
Wall Street finished lower despite a jump in consumer confidence.
Friday, September 11, 2009
Market Sentiment 11th September 2009
Nasdaq 23 = 1
S&P 500 10 = 1
Ftse -16 = -1
Nikkei 201 = 1
Futures 42 = 2
Market Sentiment 8
US markets reached their highest levels in 12 months overnight, however September historically is the weakest month for stocks. Will the rally continue?
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Market Sentiment 10th September 2009
Nasdaq 22 = 1
S&P 500 7 = 1
Ftse 57 = 1
Nikkei -81 = -1
Futures 31 = 2
Market Sentiment 6
US consumer spending concerns cap Wall Street gains, retail sales were flat and the Fed believes the economy will remain weak for some due to higher unemployment. European stocks closed at an 11 month high. The Australian XJO is currently 40 points higher.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Market Sentiment 9th September 2009
Nasdaq 18 = 1
S&P 500 8 = 1
Ftse 14 = 1
Nikkei 72 = 1
Futures 11 = 2
Market Sentiment 10
US markets were higher with commodity and precious metal stock leading the way. A report has shown that US Employment trends are likely to remain flat for the rest of 2009. Gold broke the US$1000 mark on a weak US dollar.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Market Sentiment 8th September 2009
Nasdaq Closed = 0
S&P 500 Closed = 0
Ftse 81 = 1
Nikkei 133 = 1
Futures 18 = 2
Market Sentiment 4
The Australian market is currently 41 points higher despite no lead from a closed US market. The FTSE was 81 points higher. A NAB survey has shown that Australian business confidence is at its highest level since October 2003
Monday, September 7, 2009
Market Sentiment 7th September 2009
Nasdaq 35 = 2
S&P 500 13 = 1
Ftse 54 = 1
Nikkei -27 = -1
Futures 38 = 2
Market Sentiment 9
Australian Construction figures show Commercial activity has dipped while house building was up for the second consecutive month.
Friday, September 4, 2009
Market Sentiment 4th September 2009
Nasdaq 16 = 1
S&P 500 8 = 1
Ftse -20 = -1
Nikkei -65 = -1
Futures 28 = 2
Market Sentiment 6
US stocks closed higher although a cautious mood remained. Gold rallied for the second day and looks to test the mark $1000 mark again. A warning on interest rates was sounded,comments from a Federal Reserve spokesman said that interest rates could rise "as aggressively as they were cut as the economic recovery takes hold".
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Market Sentiment 3 September 2009
Nasdaq -1 = -2
S&P 500 -3 = -2
Ftse -2 = -1
Nikkei -70 = -1
Futures -17 = -4
Market Sentiment -14
Wall Street closed lower on a late sell off. Gold rallied over night as investors moved from currencies into gold. Australian exports fell 1% in July.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Market Sentiment 2nd September 2009
Nasdaq -40 = -2
S&P 500 -22 = -2
Ftse -89 = -1
Nikkei 37 = 1
Futures -71 = -4
Market Sentiment -12
Wall Street fell over night as rumours spread that another US Bank may fail. On the positive side US manufacturing figures grew in August.
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
Market Sentiment 1st September 2009
Nasdaq -19 = -1
S&P 500 -8 = -1
Ftse n/a = 0
Nikkei -41 = -1
Futures -10 = -2
Market Sentiment -7
Wall Street fell after the Shanghai index plunged 6.7%