Think Financial Markets - Excellence In Trading Financial Markets
Market Sentiment
It is essential that we have a general feeling of which direction our market may trade on any given day.
To achieve this it is necessary to be aware of how global markets have performed on the previous day as well as during the night.
We measure this sentiment by allocating points to certain global indicies to measure their strength or weakness.
We look firstly to The Dow Jones Index. This index is one of the world’s most influential and as such rates very highly in determining the daily sentiment.
We allocate between 2 pts plus or minus if the overnight movement is less than 50pts or 4pts if over 50pts
The next most important indicator is the SPI200 which is the futures contract covering the Australian markets top 200 stocks and trades almost 24hours per day.
We also allocate between 2 and 4 pts as per the Dow.
Then we add both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 indicies from the U.S they are allocated points as follows
Nasdaq above /below 30 ,plus or minus 2pts or less than 30, 1pt
S&P 500 above /below 15, plus or minus 2pts or less than 15, 1pt
Next we add the FTSE 100 results from England and the NIKKEI 250 from Japan which are allocated 1pt for a plus or minus result.
The maximum points on our table are 14 and variations of this will gauge bullish or bearish sentiment.
Other very important overnight markets to be taken into consideration when trading the Australian market are firstly the strength or weakness in the Aussie dollar versus the US dollar and we rarely have a good day if the commodity markets have been sold down during the night.
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas 21 = +1
S&P 15 = +2
Ftse -9 = -1
Nik +5 = +1
ASX Futures +55 = +1
Market Sentiment = +8
Monday, July 30, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas -37 = -2
S&P -24 = -2
Ftse -36 = -1
Nik -418 = -1
ASX Futures -75 = -1
Market Sentiment = -11
Saturday, July 28, 2007
Who Gives Financial Advisors Advice?
But who gives advice on investment products to Financial Advisors?? The melt down in the Sub-prime debt products, which has now spread panic across global stock markets, has had many Financial Advisors crying foul.
The Financial Advisors said they relied on research houses giving strong ratings on the products, so the Financial Advisors then sold the products to their clients.
The research houses included some big names such as Standard & Poor's, Morningstar, Lonsec, InvestorWeb Research, to name a few.
So what are the lessons here? If you want a job done.... do it yourself. Do your own research, invest in products that you understand, keep it simple (simple products included) and understand leveraged investment products and instruments.
As for the recent sell off seen in the market, it will bring opportunity to those who do the chart study and research.
The Sub-prime Story
These loans are provided by lenders who charge higher interest rates, the loans are then onsold to larger banks, they in turn "bundle" these loans with other products and sell them to fund managers, investment companies (listed and unlisted) and private investors.
Some investors take out margin loans to purchase these debt products, (mmmm use debt to buy someone's debt, great idea... NOT).
The returns to investors/fund managers on these debt products rely on the orginal US homebuyer, who didn't qualify for a loan under normal credit terms, ability to pay back the loan, when they default on the loan, the assets (home) is then sold in a fire sale. Where does the leave the investor/fund managers who purchase the debt product with borrowed funds/margin loans??.... Out of pocket of course.
Friday, July 27, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas -49 = -2
S&P -35 = -2
Ftse -203 = -1
Nik -156 = -1
ASX Futures -152 = -1
Market Sentiment = -11
Thursday, July 26, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas +8 = +1
S&P +7 = +1
Ftse -44 = -1
Nik -144 = -1
ASX Futures +14 = +1
Market Sentiment = +5
Wednesday, July 25, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas -51 = -2
S&P -31 = -2
Ftse -125 = -1
Nik +38 = +1
ASX Futures -19 = -1
Market Sentiment = -9
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas 3 = +1
S&P 7 = +1
Ftse 39 = +1
Nik -194 = -1
ASX Futures 5 = +1
Market Sentiment = +7
Monday, July 23, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas -32 =-2
S&P -19 =-2
Ftse -55 =-1
Nik +41 =1
ASX Futures -42 =-1
Market Sentiment = -9
Friday, July 20, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas +21 =1
S&P +7 =1
Ftse +73 =1
Nik +101 =1
ASX Futures +21 =1
Market Sentiment = +9
Thursday, July 19, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas -13 =-1
S&P -3 =-1
Ftse -92 =-1
Nik -202 =-1
ASX Futures +11 =1
Market Sentiment = -7
Wednesday, July 18, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas +15 =1
S&P -1 =-1
Ftse -39 =-1
Nik -22 =-1
ASX Futures -12 =-1
Market Sentiment = -1
Market Sentiment
Nas +15 =1
S&P -1 =-1
Ftse -39 =-1
Nik -22 =-1
ASX Futures -12 =-1
Market Sentiment = -1
Market Sentiment
Nas +15 =1
S&P -1 =-1
Ftse -39 =-1
Nik -22 =-1
ASX Futures -12 =-1
Market Sentiment = -1
Tuesday, July 17, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas -10 =-1
S&P -3 =-1
Ftse -19 =-1
Nik +167 =1
ASX Futures +2 =1
Market Sentiment = +1
Monday, July 16, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas +5 =1
S&P +5 =1
Ftse +19 =1
Nik +255 =1
ASX Futures +7 =1
Market Sentiment = +7
Friday, July 13, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas +50 =2
S&P +29 =2
Ftse +83 =1
Nik -65 =-1
ASX Futures +67 =1
Market Sentiment = +9
Thursday, July 12, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas +13 =1
S&P +9 =1
Ftse -16 =-1
Nik -203 =-1
ASX Futures +25 =1
Market Sentiment = +5
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Saturday, July 7, 2007
Market Sentiment 9/07/2007
Nas +10 =1
S&P +5 =1
Ftse +55 =1
Nik -81 =-1
ASX Futures +41 =1
Market Sentiment = +5
Friday, July 6, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas +12 = 1
S&P +1 = 1
Ftse -38 = -1
Nik 53 = 1
ASX Futures -15 -1
Market Sentiment = -1
Thursday, July 5, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas holiday
S&P holiday
Ftse +33 =1
Nikkei +19 =1
ASX Futures +5 =1
Market Sentiment = +3
Wednesday, July 4, 2007
Market Sentiment
S&P +5 =1
Ftse +49 =1
Nik +8 =1
ASX Futures -3 =-1
Market Sentiment = +5
Tuesday, July 3, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas +29 =1
S&P +16 =2
Ftse -17 =-1
Nik +8 =1
ASX Futures +55 =1
Market Sentiment = +8
Monday, July 2, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas -5 =-1
S&P -2 =-1
Ftse 37 =1
Nik 206 =1
ASX Futures 13 =1
Market Sentiment = -1
Sunday, July 1, 2007
Australian Stocks Post Best Performance in 20 Years
In 12 months the ASX 200 has recorded a 23.7% return, while the all ordinaries saw a 25.2% gain.
The S&P/ASX200 accumulation index, which includes dividend payments, rose 28.4 per cent points, its biggest single year rise since 1987, which saw the S&P/ASX200 accumulation index jump 54 per cent ahead of the worst collapse since the Great Depression of the 1930's.
However unlike 1987, returns in 2006 were driven by steady earnings, in a low interest rate environment, and healthy economic growth.
Growth Economies
Australia would be a major winner as increased spending in Asia will provide opportunities to Australian exporters, and especially in the financial services sector.
In India, the economy is expected to double within 10 years, with one of the biggest growth area being in "organised" retail shopping facilities (supermarkets). Currently "organised" shopping facilities make upabout 5% of the market. Energy supply is another growth market.
So while the focus has been China, other markets are following China's lead.