Think Financial Markets - Excellence In Trading Financial Markets

Think Financial Markets - Excellence In Trading Financial Markets

Market Sentiment

It is essential that we have a general feeling of which direction our market may trade on any given day.

To achieve this it is necessary to be aware of how global markets have performed on the previous day as well as during the night.

We measure this sentiment by allocating points to certain global indicies to measure their strength or weakness.

We look firstly to The Dow Jones Index. This index is one of the world’s most influential and as such rates very highly in determining the daily sentiment.

We allocate between 2 pts plus or minus if the overnight movement is less than 50pts or 4pts if over 50pts

The next most important indicator is the SPI200 which is the futures contract covering the Australian markets top 200 stocks and trades almost 24hours per day.

We also allocate between 2 and 4 pts as per the Dow.

Then we add both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 indicies from the U.S they are allocated points as follows

Nasdaq above /below 30 ,plus or minus 2pts or less than 30, 1pt

S&P 500 above /below 15, plus or minus 2pts or less than 15, 1pt

Next we add the FTSE 100 results from England and the NIKKEI 250 from Japan which are allocated 1pt for a plus or minus result.

The maximum points on our table are 14 and variations of this will gauge bullish or bearish sentiment.

Other very important overnight markets to be taken into consideration when trading the Australian market are firstly the strength or weakness in the Aussie dollar versus the US dollar and we rarely have a good day if the commodity markets have been sold down during the night.


Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow -40=-2
Nasdaq +2=+1
S&P 500 -5=-1
Ftse -1=1
Nikkei 31=1
Futures -50

Market Sentiment -3
AAP

The Australian stock market is expected to open lower following a weak lead from Wall Street overnight.

Base metals prices closed lower in London which could weigh on local resources stocks.

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow -20=-2
Nasdaq +1=+1
S&P 500 -1=-1
Ftse -1=1
Nikkei 31=1
Futures steady

Market Sentiment -2
AAP

The Australian stock market has received mixed leads from overseas.

Wall Street ended little changed overnight, while base metals prices also were mixed.

At 0719 AEST, on the Sydney Futures exchange, the June share price index was at 5,650.

Today, the Housing Industry Association March quarter Trades Report is due.

In equities, BT Investment Management Ltd releases interim results and Centennial Coal Company Ltd's third quarter production report is due.

Aristocrat Leisure Ltd and Petsec Energy Ltd hold annual general meetings and ABN Amro holds its 7th annual communications conference in Sydney.

Monday, April 28, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow 43=2
Nasdaq -6=-1
S&P 500 9=1
Ftse 41=1
Nikkei 322=1
Futures 90=1

Market Sentiment +5

Thursday, April 24, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow 43=2
Nasdaq 28=1
S&P 500 4=1
Ftse 49=1
Nikkei 31=1
Futures -7=-1

Market Sentiment +5

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow -105=-4
Nasdaq -31=-2
S&P 500 -12=-1
Ftse -18=-1
Nikkei -149=-1
Futures -17=-1

Market Sentiment -10
AAP

The Australian share market is expected to open lower this morning after US stocks sank overnight on rising oil prices and worries about inflation and consumer spending.

At 0703 AEST, on the Sydney Futures exchange, the June share price index was 17 points lower at 5,583 on a volume of 1,004 contracts.

In news today, the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases the consumer price index data for the March quarter.

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow -24=-2
Nasdaq +5=1
S&P 500 -2=-1
Ftse -4=-1
Nikkei 220=1
Futures -19=-1

Market Sentiment -3

Monday, April 21, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow +229=4
Nasdaq +61=2
S&P 500 +25=2
Ftse +76=1
Nikkei 78=1
Futures 79=1

Market Sentiment +11

Friday, April 18, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow +1=2
Nasdaq -8=-1
S&P 500 +1=1
Ftse -66=-1
Nikkei 252=1
Futures 11=1

Market Sentiment +3

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow +257=4
Nasdaq +64=2
S&P 500 +30=2
Ftse +139=1
Nikkei 156=1
Futures 150=1

Market Sentiment +11

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow +60=2
Nasdaq +10=1
S&P 500 +6=1
Ftse +75=+1
Nikkei 73=+1
Futures 71=+1

Market Sentiment +9

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow -23=-2
Nasdaq -14=-1
S&P 500 -5=-1
Ftse -64=-1
Nikkei -406=-1
Futures -2=-1

Market Sentiment -7

Monday, April 14, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow -257=-4
Nasdaq -61=-2
S&P 500 -28=-2
Ftse -70=-1
Nikkei 378=+1
Futures -83=-1

Market Sentiment -9
AAP

The Australian share market is expected to open lower on Monday after a sharp drop on United States markets. CommSec chief equities economist Craig James said the Australian bourse would probably experience a "soggy start" on Monday.

"All the markets around the world are playing follow-the-leader with the US," he said.

"It seems as though it doesn't matter what's happening in terms of corporate news.

Friday, April 11, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow 55=+4
Nasdaq 30=+2
S&P 500 6=+1
Ftse -19=-1
Nikkei -167=-1
Futures 2=+1

Market Sentiment +6

AAP

The Australian share market has received positive but indifferent leads from Wall Street leading into opening this morning, although the high-tech Nasdaq index was up more than one per cent.

In London, base metals were down.

There was little clue from futures trading in Sydney, either. On the Sydney Futures exchange, the June share price index at 0658 AEST was up one point at 5481.

There is no major data due for release in Australia today.

Thursday, April 10, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow -49=-2
Nasdaq -27=-1
S&P 500 -11=-1
Ftse -6=-1
Nikkei -139=-1
Futures -8=-1

Market Sentiment -7
AAP/Reuters

The Australian share market is expected to open lower today following falls on Wall Street and increased price of oil which set a new record at $112 per barrel.

Casting a gloomy outlook on global growth, the International Monetary Fund forecast the US economy will tip into recession this year and said there is a 25 percent chance that world growth will slow to three per cent or less.

Wednesday, April 9, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow -36=-2
Nasdaq -16=-1
S&P 500 -7=-1
Ftse -25=-1
Nikkei -200=-1
Futures 45=+1

Market Sentiment -5
THE share market closed down yesterday after profit-taking ended six consecutive trading days of gains.

Reuters/AAP

Australian shares are set for a firmer open, buoyed by gains in BHP Billiton Ltd and on market talk that Baoshan Iron and Steel Co was looking to buy a stake in the world's top miner.

Tuesday, April 8, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow 3=+2
Nasdaq 8=+1
S&P 500 2=+1
Ftse 68=+1
Nikkei 157=+1
Futures -3=-1

Market Sentiment +5

SYDNEY, April 8 (Reuters) - Australian shares are set for a
steady start on Tuesday, though commodity firms such as Newcrest
Mining and Woodside Petroleum Ltd may gain on
rising gold and oil prices.
But any upside is likely to be limited as a jump in oil
prices stoked concerns that corporate profits will suffer,
weighing down on Wall Street [.N].

Monday, April 7, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow -17=-2
Nasdaq 8=+1
S&P 500 1=+1
Ftse 56=+1
Nikkei -97=-1
Futures 39=+1

Market Sentiment +1

Friday, April 4, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow 20=+1
Nasdaq 2=+1
S&P 500 2=+1
Ftse -25=-1
Nikkei 200=+1
Futures 85=+1

Market Sentiment +5

Thursday, April 3, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow -49=-2
Nasdaq -1=-1
S&P 500 -3=-1
Ftse 63=+1
Nikkei 533=+1
Futures 21=+1

Market Sentiment -1

IF the world economy unfolds in the way economic models say that it should, Australia will have little to fear from the downturn in the US.

It may even lead to an increased flow of capital into Australia, according to RBA director and ANU economics professor Warwick McKibbin. But while McKibbin expects a largely benign outcome for Australia, he says there are risks in the way the world financial crisis is evolving.
But the continued growth of China, India, elsewhere in Asia and in eastern Europe will keep the commodities boom powering ahead. "Australia is having its biggest positive terms of trade shock in living memory. That is generating an enormous amount of income for the Australian economy and it is not obvious that it is going away any time soon. The challenge to government policy is how to manage that shock, not how to manage the recession in the US," he says.

Wednesday, April 2, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow 394=+4
Nasdaq 84=+2
S&P 500 48=+2
Ftse 151=+1
Nikkei 151=+1
Futures 47=+1

Market Sentiment +11

U.S. stocks shot up the most in two weeks on Tuesday after strong demand
for a Lehman Brothers share offering quelled fears it was headed toward
a fate similar to Bear Stearns and raised optimism that the worst of
the credit crisis may be over.

Tuesday, April 1, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow 46=+2
Nasdaq 18=+1
S&P 500 7=+1
Ftse 9=+1
Nikkei -295=-1
Futures 14=+1

Market Sentiment +5

U.S. Last night It was a fairly tame end to the first quarter of 2008 – and the worst quarter since Q3 of 2002 for US equities. The session started off just like the quarter did, with talk of massive write-downs pushing the bid in bonds and seeing equities heavy.