Think Financial Markets - Excellence In Trading Financial Markets
Market Sentiment
It is essential that we have a general feeling of which direction our market may trade on any given day.
To achieve this it is necessary to be aware of how global markets have performed on the previous day as well as during the night.
We measure this sentiment by allocating points to certain global indicies to measure their strength or weakness.
We look firstly to The Dow Jones Index. This index is one of the world’s most influential and as such rates very highly in determining the daily sentiment.
We allocate between 2 pts plus or minus if the overnight movement is less than 50pts or 4pts if over 50pts
The next most important indicator is the SPI200 which is the futures contract covering the Australian markets top 200 stocks and trades almost 24hours per day.
We also allocate between 2 and 4 pts as per the Dow.
Then we add both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 indicies from the U.S they are allocated points as follows
Nasdaq above /below 30 ,plus or minus 2pts or less than 30, 1pt
S&P 500 above /below 15, plus or minus 2pts or less than 15, 1pt
Next we add the FTSE 100 results from England and the NIKKEI 250 from Japan which are allocated 1pt for a plus or minus result.
The maximum points on our table are 14 and variations of this will gauge bullish or bearish sentiment.
Other very important overnight markets to be taken into consideration when trading the Australian market are firstly the strength or weakness in the Aussie dollar versus the US dollar and we rarely have a good day if the commodity markets have been sold down during the night.
Friday, November 30, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas 4=+1
S&P 1=+1
Ftse 43=+1
Nik 360=+1
Futures 22=+1
Market Sentiment +7
THE Australian sharemarket closed in positive territory yesterday following a strong overnight lead from Wall Street and renewed optimism in local banking stocks.
A manager at ABN Amro Morgans, Tony Russell, said the local market performed well yesterday following a recovery on Wall Street overnight.
"A strong day on the back of very strong indicators coming out of Wall Street.
"People still see a lot of volatility in the market … it's up one day and down the next."
Mr Russell said there was some profit taking in the banking sector yesterday.
"We are seeing some bargain hunting coming in there with the banks, except for the National Australia Bank, which is a bit weaker on the back of their acquisition in the US."
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas 82=+2
S&P 41=+2
Ftse 166=+1
Nik -69=-1
Futures 128=+1
Market Sentiment +9
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas -56=-2
S&P -33=-2
Ftse -82=-1
Nik +246=+1
Futures -116=-1
Market Sentiment -9
Friday, November 23, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas holiday
S&P holiday
Ftse 84=+1
Nik 51=+1
Futures -6=-1
Market Sentiment +1
STOCKS dropped for a third day, sending the benchmark index to the lowest in almost 10 weeks led by BHP Billiton and Woodside Petroleum after metals prices declined and oil fell from a record.
ANZ and Babcock & Brown led financial stocks lower after US markets slid on fears that subprime mortgage losses would keep flowing.
"The US market was down on people's increasing concerns at the chance of a recession and that doesn't help commodity prices," said Steven Marsh, of Trust Co in Sydney. "People saying there's going to be a recession in the US are on top and it's reflecting on our banks."
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas -35=-2
S&P -23=-2
Ftse -156=-1
Nik -374=-1
Futures -60=-1
Market Sentiment -11
HUGE spike in global inflation generated by China and India could lead to 1970s-style hyperinflation in Australia, one of the country's largest asset managers, Queensland Investment Corporation, has warned.
The analysis by QIC chief executive Doug McTaggart charts a path to spiralling inflation, huge economic consequences and plummeting sharemarkets with central banks unable to do much about it.
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas -44=-2
S&P -25=-2
Ftse -170=-1
Nik -113=-1
Futures -111=-1
Market Sentiment -11
In New York the Dow and S&P 500 closed at their lowest levels in three months on Monday after a broker downgrade of Citigroup sparked concerns that more mortgage losses may lie ahead, compounding doubts about the outlook for the economy. Goldman Sachs cut Citigroup to "sell" and said the bank may have to write off $15 billion over the next two quarters as mortgage losses reduce earnings.
Monday, November 19, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas 19=+1
S&P 8=+1
Ftse -68=-1
Nik -242=-1
Futures 43=+1
Market Sentiment 5
Companies are pumping record sums into aggressive oil and gas and minerals exploration programs to continue Western Australia’s phenomenal resources boom.
Resources Minister Francis Logan said figures showed WA’s exploration expenditure rose by 39 per cent to $839.2 million in 2006/07, accounting for nearly half of Australia’s total
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas -30=-2
S&P -12=-1
Ftse 70=+1
Nik 373=+1
Futures -12=-1
Market Sentiment -6
Shares went for bit of a gallop yesterday, the indices closing more than 1 per cent higher, boosted by a strong run in financials for a second day, while a rally on Wall Street eased fears the subprime fallout had a lot longer to run
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas -44=-2
S&P -15=-2
Ftse 33=+1
Nik -386=-1
Futures -38=-1
Market Sentiment -9
US ECONOMIC concerns are chipping away at investor confidence, sending the sharemarket lower and dramatically halting the dollar's upward march.
In four days the dollar has tumbled from a 23-year high of US94¢, to just over US89¢.
Yesterday renewed angst over the US subprime mortgage market sparked a 1.4 per cent fall on the Australian sharemarket.
Monday, November 12, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas -68=-2
S&P -21=-2
Ftse -77=-1
Nik -188=-1
Futures -78=-1
Market Sentiment -11
Friday, November 9, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas -58=-2
S&P 2=+1
Ftse -3=-1
Nik -325=-1
Futures 47=+1
Market Sentiment -6
BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's biggest mining company, plans to pursue a takeover of Rio Tinto Group after an earlier approach was rejected, in what would be the largest acquisition in history.
A purchase of Rio, which has a market value of $159 billion, would create a company that controls more than a third of the iron-ore market, supplies the most energy coal and copper, and owns mines and oilfields in six continents. Rio, the third-largest miner behind Anglo American Plc, surged 21 percent in London trading.
Thursday, November 8, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas -77=-2
S&P -45=-2
Ftse 38=+1
Nik -120=-1
Futures -138=-1
Market Sentiment - 9
WALL ST TUMBLES AS OIL HITS $98 BARRELSydney - Thursday - November 8: (RWE Aust Business News) -
US investors have taken another bath, losing heavily on the Dow as the oil price briefly reached $98 barrel and the ailing greenback posted another low on the euro.
Oil prices did show signs of stalling in their climb toward $100 a barrel after data showed oil inventories fell less than expected last week.
China showed more signs of stress from oil's price surge.
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
Tuesday, November 6, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas -15=-1
S&P -7=-1
Ftse -69=-1
Nik -155=-1
Futures 13=1
Market Sentiment -7
WHEN the nine members of the Reserve Bank board sit down this morning for their most scrutinised meeting for years, it will not just be millions of Australians who will feel the pinch if they increase interest rates - more than half the board have significant mortgages.
Rarely has so much attention been on one meeting; if the board decides, as most economists predict, that interest rates will go up, it will be the first time an increase has been decided during an election campaign. This group of nine, with our fate in their hands, is not one that shies away from debt. Mortgage records show they have taken out close to $12million in home mortgages between them.
Monday, November 5, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas 16=+1
S&P 1= +1
Ftse -56=-1
Nik -353=-1
Futures 25=1
Market Sentiment 3
THE possibility of an interest rate rise smack in the middle of a federal election campaign and a momentous vote on the future of Australia's second biggest retailer will dominate investors' attention this week.
Both decisions are likely to occur against a backdrop of heightened global alert and possible sharemarket volatility caused by fears that the worst of the global liquidity crisis is yet to come. After plunging 2 per cent on Friday, the Australian sharemarket is expected to start the week on a more positive note as stronger-than-expected jobs data in the US cooled fears of a recession in the world's biggest economy. A related modest rise on Wall Street on Friday will push the local bourse about 20 points higher at Monday's opening, says MFS chief executive Guy Hutchings.
Friday, November 2, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas -64=-2
S&P -41= -2
Ftse -135=-1
Nik 133=+1
Futures -109=-1
Market Sentiment -9
The Dow industrials, a day after rallying on an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, suffered one of its biggest declines of the year on Thursday after a Citigroup downgrade reminded Wall Street that the crisis plaguing the credit crisis markets is lingering.
Thursday, November 1, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas 42=+2
S&P 18= +2
Ftse 63=+1
Nik 87=+1
Futures 35=+1
Market Sentiment 11
U.S. stocks rose on trade overnight, wth all three major indexes up more than 1%, sharply rebounding from an initial decline following the Federal Reserve's cut in interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected. Earlier, rate-sensitive shares of financial companies, including JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, had advanced, with the S&P financial index up 1.1%. On the Nasdaq, shares of Web search company Google Inc climbed to a record $704.79 before trading at $701.02. Government data showed gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 3.9% in the third quarter its fastest rate since the beginning of 2006. Commentry from the fed on economic growth and stability, leaving the way open for possible further rate cuts.