Think Financial Markets - Excellence In Trading Financial Markets

Think Financial Markets - Excellence In Trading Financial Markets

Market Sentiment

It is essential that we have a general feeling of which direction our market may trade on any given day.

To achieve this it is necessary to be aware of how global markets have performed on the previous day as well as during the night.

We measure this sentiment by allocating points to certain global indicies to measure their strength or weakness.

We look firstly to The Dow Jones Index. This index is one of the world’s most influential and as such rates very highly in determining the daily sentiment.

We allocate between 2 pts plus or minus if the overnight movement is less than 50pts or 4pts if over 50pts

The next most important indicator is the SPI200 which is the futures contract covering the Australian markets top 200 stocks and trades almost 24hours per day.

We also allocate between 2 and 4 pts as per the Dow.

Then we add both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 indicies from the U.S they are allocated points as follows

Nasdaq above /below 30 ,plus or minus 2pts or less than 30, 1pt

S&P 500 above /below 15, plus or minus 2pts or less than 15, 1pt

Next we add the FTSE 100 results from England and the NIKKEI 250 from Japan which are allocated 1pt for a plus or minus result.

The maximum points on our table are 14 and variations of this will gauge bullish or bearish sentiment.

Other very important overnight markets to be taken into consideration when trading the Australian market are firstly the strength or weakness in the Aussie dollar versus the US dollar and we rarely have a good day if the commodity markets have been sold down during the night.


Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow -778=-4
Nasdaq -200 =-2
S&P 500 -107=-2
Ftse -270=-1
Nikkei -150=-1
Futures -339=-1

Market Sentiment -11

The Australian sharemarket looks likely to open sharply lower, after Wall Street plummeted by as much as nine per cent as US lawmakers unexpectedly rejected a $US700 billion financial bailout.

The Dow industrials plunged in the blue-chip average's biggest one-day point drop ever after US lawmakers unexpectedly rejected a $US700 billion financial bailout, spooking investors who saw it as essential to halting a global market meltdown.

The Dow lost about 778 points and posted its biggest daily percentage decline since the October 1987 stock market crash, while the benchmark S&P 500 also had its worst day in 21 years after the House sent the bailout plan to defeat by a vote of 228 to 205.

Monday, September 29, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow 124=4
Nasdaq -3 =-1
S&P 500 -4=-1
Ftse -109=-1
Nikkei -113=-1
Futures 48=1

Market Sentiment 1
The Australian stock market has received a positive lead from Wall Street, particularly with news this morning that US congressmen have reached agreement on a rescue package for US financial institutions.

Friday, September 26, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow 197=4
Nasdaq 31 =2
S&P 500 23=2
Ftse 102=1
Nikkei -108=-1
Futures 63=1

Market Sentiment 9
The Australian sharemarket looks likely to open higher after Wall Street climbed two per cent on US financial bailout hopes.

Wall Street snapped a three-day losing streak as Congress closed in on a deal for a $US700 billion financial-sector bailout that investors hope will thaw credit markets and revive lending.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow -29=-2
Nasdaq 2 =1
S&P 500 -2=-1
Ftse -41=-1
Nikkei 24=1
Futures -34=-1

Market Sentiment -3
The Australian sharemarket looks likely to open lower, following a negative lead from Wall Street.

The US market closed slightly lower overnight, as uncertainty about when Congress might approve a proposed $US700 billion financial sector bailout offset Warren Buffett's $US5 billion investment in Goldman Sachs.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow -162=-4
Nasdaq -26 =-2
S&P 500 -19=-2
Ftse -100=-1
Nikkei holiday
Futures -71=-1

Market Sentiment -10
More losses for the Australian share market appear likely after Wall Street dropped on uncertainty surrounding the government’s proposed financial bailout.

The US market closed down 1.5 per cent overnight, as testimonies by Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury secretary Henry Paulson failed to quell investors' fears about the financial sector.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow -373=-4
Nasdaq -95 =-2
S&P 500 -48=-2
Ftse -75=-1
Nikkei 170=1
Futures -111=-1

Market Sentiment -9
The Australian stock market has received a negative lead from Wall Street, where volatility swept across the financial markets as doubts intensified over the US government's $US700 bailout of the banking sector.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow -449=-4
Nasdaq -109 =-2
S&P 500 -57=-2
Ftse -113=-1
Nikkei 140=1
Futures -153=-1

Market Sentiment -9
More losses for the Australian sharemarket appear likely with Wall Street plunging four per cent after the US Federal Reserve's $US85 billion rescue of beleaguered American International Group failed to calm the market.

US stocks were battered again overnight, as investors worried about who could be the next victim of the global credit crisis, prompting them to dump financial shares across the board.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow 141=4
Nasdaq 28 =2
S&P 500 21=2
Ftse -179=-1
Nikkei -605=-1
Futures 16=1

Market Sentiment 7
Please note the U.S.futures are again showing weakness
since market close and this will weaken the market sentiment for today.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow -504=-4
Nasdaq -81 =-2
S&P 500 -59=-2
Ftse -213=-1
Nikkei 112=1
Futures -135=-1

Market Sentiment -9
The Australian share market is set for a sharp decline at the open, after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the acquisition of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America ensured a tumultuous trading session on Wall Street.

Monday, September 15, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow -12=-2
Nasdaq 3 =1
S&P 500 3=1
Ftse 98=1
Nikkei 112=1
Futures 50=1

Market Sentiment 3
URGENT URGENT URGENT
The following news was released at 6.00am this morning our time and the US futures are down 2% this would negate any positive market sentiment posted above.
US consumer banking heavyweight Bank of America Corp ruled itself out as a prospective buyer for Lehman, less than three hours after another leading candidate UK lender Barclays plc also said it was not interested in the faltering investment bank, according to a Bloomberg report.

Friday, September 12, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow 165=4
Nasdaq 30 =2
S&P 500 17=2
Ftse -48=-1
Nikkei -244=-1
Futures 43=1

Market Sentiment 7
Australian markets have received a strong lead from Wall Street equities overnight, which finished almost 1.5 per cent higher. Oil, silver and gold were down, while copper was marginally higher.

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow 38=2
Nasdaq 19 =1
S&P 500 7=1
Ftse -49=-1
Nikkei -54=-1
Futures 12=1

Market Sentiment 3
The Australian market has received a mixed lead, with Wall Street up - albeit just marginally - while oil, gold and silver were down again.

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow -280=-4
Nasdaq -60 =-2
S&P 500 -43=-2
Ftse -31=-1
Nikkei -224=-1
Futures -164=-1

Market Sentiment -11
The Australian stock market may trade weaker today after Wall Street dropped by around two and a half per cent overnight. Oil fell commensurately, and gold, silver and copper, too, were lower.

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow 290=4
Nasdaq 14 =1
S&P 500 25=2
Ftse 206=1
Nikkei 412=1
Futures -23=-1

Market Sentiment 8
The Australian stock market has received a strong, positive lead from Wall Street, although share price index futures contracts were trading down in Sydney

Monday, September 8, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow 33=2
Nasdaq -3 =-1
S&P 500 5=1
Ftse -121=-1
Nikkei -345=-1
Futures 36=1

Market Sentiment 1
The US government on Sunday seized control of mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, launching what could be its biggest federal bailout ever, in a bid to support the US housing market and ward off more global financial market turbulence.
The Australian share market will be one of the first to open after the news of the bail-out and will be followed by the rest of Asia. It will give us the first indication of how the world capital markets are taking this dramatic but essential move.

Friday, September 5, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow -345=-4
Nasdaq -75 =-2
S&P 500 -38=-2
Ftse -138=-1
Nikkei -132=-1
Futures -153=-1

Market Sentiment -11
The Australian stock market is likely to fall after equities in the US slumped overnight on renewed concerns about the economy, as reports showed retail sales and employment are weakening.

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow 16=2
Nasdaq -16 =-1
S&P 500 -3=-1
Ftse -121=-1
Nikkei 80=1
Futures steady= 0

Market Sentiment flat
The Australian stock market may rise slightly after US equities were mixed but little changed overnight and commodities, too, were mixed, with oil and gold falling and copper gaining.

Monday, September 1, 2008

Market Sentiment

Dow -172=-4
Nasdaq -44 =-2
S&P 500 -18=-2
Ftse 35=1
Nikkei 305=1
Futures -29=-1

Market Sentiment -7

The Australian sharemarket is expected to open lower as local investors follow the lead from Wall Street trading buffeted on Friday by a hurricane.

As investors take stock at the end of earnings season, the Reserve Bank of Australia will convene its monthly board meeting on Tuesday to consider cutting interest rates.

Economists are now convinced the central bank will move to cut rates, with most tipping a 25 basis point slice, bringing the official cash rate to 7.00 per cent.

As well, this week the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the national accounts data for June quarter on Wednesday.