Think Financial Markets - Excellence In Trading Financial Markets

Think Financial Markets - Excellence In Trading Financial Markets

Market Sentiment

It is essential that we have a general feeling of which direction our market may trade on any given day.

To achieve this it is necessary to be aware of how global markets have performed on the previous day as well as during the night.

We measure this sentiment by allocating points to certain global indicies to measure their strength or weakness.

We look firstly to The Dow Jones Index. This index is one of the world’s most influential and as such rates very highly in determining the daily sentiment.

We allocate between 2 pts plus or minus if the overnight movement is less than 50pts or 4pts if over 50pts

The next most important indicator is the SPI200 which is the futures contract covering the Australian markets top 200 stocks and trades almost 24hours per day.

We also allocate between 2 and 4 pts as per the Dow.

Then we add both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 indicies from the U.S they are allocated points as follows

Nasdaq above /below 30 ,plus or minus 2pts or less than 30, 1pt

S&P 500 above /below 15, plus or minus 2pts or less than 15, 1pt

Next we add the FTSE 100 results from England and the NIKKEI 250 from Japan which are allocated 1pt for a plus or minus result.

The maximum points on our table are 14 and variations of this will gauge bullish or bearish sentiment.

Other very important overnight markets to be taken into consideration when trading the Australian market are firstly the strength or weakness in the Aussie dollar versus the US dollar and we rarely have a good day if the commodity markets have been sold down during the night.


Friday, September 28, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow 35=2
Nas 11=1
S&P 6=1
Ftse 53=1
Nik 396=1
Futures 19=1
Market Sentiment 7

THE Australian dollar is consolidating as a plaything of choice for international investors, with the currency poised to overtake the Swiss franc as the world's fifth-most heavily traded.

An international survey of currency markets - with the Reserve Bank tallying the numbers at our end - shows a 110 per cent rise in turnover on the Australian dollar between 2004 and last April.

Thursday, September 27, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow 100=4
Nas 16=1
S&P 8=1
Ftse 36=1
Nik 34=1
Futures 42=1
Market Sentiment 9

THE stockmarket comeback paused yesterday, as the big miners settled a lit bit below their recent record highs.

The ASX 200 index finished 1.6 points lower at 6481.4 while the All Ordinaries again closed in record territory, adding half a point to close at a 6491.4, eclipsing Tuesday's record of 6490.9.

Traders on the Sydney Futures Exchange caught the caution and the December share price index contract was down 12 at the close of the day at 6547, still well ahead of the physical.

A CMC Markets analyst, David Land, said a strong run from the goldminers and the finance sector managed to counteract some of the negative effect from the big miners.

Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow 20= 2
Nas 16= 1
S&P -1=-1
Ftse -69=-1
Nik 89= 1
Futures -41=-1
Market Sentiment 1

THE sharemarket continued its record run yesterday, underpinned by solid gains in the big miners, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto.

The ASX 200 index finished 31.5 points higher at a record 6483, eclipsing the previous best close of 6451.5, set on Monday.

The All Ordinaries picked up 29.8 to a record 6490.9, beating Monday's high of 6461.1.

Both indices also claimed new intraday records, with the ASX 200 index peaking at 6509.6 and the All Ordinaries hitting 6515.2.

Plenty more where that came from, according to the futures players. The December share price index contract finished the day at 6559, up 57 and 76 more than the physical, on a volume of 22,326 contracts.

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow -61=-4
Nas -3=-1
S&P -8=-1
Ftse 9=+1
Nik holiday
Futures 8=+1
Market Sentiment -4


AUSTRALIAN shares have returned to record highs after last month's bronco ride, and superannuation funds are back to counting gains.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index, the most-watched index of Australian shares, climbed 1.5 per cent to 6451.5 points yesterday as the price of resource stocks ballooned.

The market raced past its July 24 record close of 6422.3 points, a milestone reached just days before credit troubles in the US hit Australian shares.

But last week's US interest rate cut has helped turn things around, along with higher commodity prices and a slight easing in the credit market gridlock.

Monday, September 24, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow 53=+4
Nas 17=+1
S&P 7=+1
Ftse 28=+1
Nik -101=-1
Futures 28=+1
Market Sentiment 7

Friday, September 21, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow -49=-1
Nas -12=-1
S&P -10=-1
Ftse -31=-1
Nik 32=+1
Futures -22=-1
Market Sentiment -5


THE sharemarket closed in positive territory yesterday, underpinned by strong gains from resources giants BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto.

The ASX 200 index closed up 37.6 points at 6393.7, while the All Ordinaries had gained 38.9 points to 6400.9.

On the Sydney Futures Exchange, the September share price index contract closed day trading 48 points higher at 6436, a rather hefty premium to the physical of 42 - the contract closes today - on a volume of 10,163 contracts.

CMC Markets dealer Matthew Lewis said solid gains in base metal prices overnight underpinned a positive performance from the materials sector.

"The key driver was the materials stocks, we saw surging base metal prices overnight … this has flowed on to our big metals and mining stocks like Rio and BHP," Mr Lewis said.

"I think we're also still seeing a positive flow-on effect from the Federal Reserve rate cut a couple of nights ago and we're pretty close to the all-time record again."

Thursday, September 20, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow 76=+4
Nas 15=+2
S&P 9=+1
Ftse 177=+1
Nik 580=+1
Futures 29=+1
Market Sentiment 10

THE market took a big leap forward yesterday, emulating US markets boosted by the cut in interest rates which eased fears that defaults in the US subprime mortgage market and a consequent credit squeeze would spill over into the broader economy.

Most stocks lifted, with the big miners, gold stocks and banks all making solid gains.

ABN Amro Morgans private client adviser, Simon Ferguson, said the rate cut in the US and commentary by the US Federal Reserve on the prospects of further rate cuts had especially helped stocks in the financial sector.

"Those stocks that had been hit hardest earlier in the week - the financials and the banks - are probably the ones that have rallied most," Mr Ferguson said.

"You've got, on top of that, good metals prices."

Mr Ferguson said that although the market had rallied strongly, it was still expected to be volatile for some time as further issues in the US subprime mortgage market emerged in coming moths.

"Today's a good day, but the trend is not there," Mr Ferguson said.

The ASX 200 index closed at its day's high, up 163.6

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow 336=+4
Nas 70=+2
S&P 43=+2
Ftse 100=+1
Nik -325=-1
Futures 140=+1
Market Sentiment 9

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow -39 =-2
Nas -21 =-1
S&P -8 =-1
Ftse -106 =-1
Nik 306 =+1
Futures -5 =-1
Market Sentiment -5

Monday, September 17, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow 18=+2
Nas 1=+1
S&P 1=+1
Ftse -75=-1
Nik 306=+1
Futures 7=+1
Market Sentiment +5

Friday, September 14, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow 133=+4
Nas 9=+1
S&P 12=+1
Ftse 58=+1
Nik 24=+1
Futures 10=+1
Market Sentiment +9

Thursday, September 13, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow -17=-2
Nas -5=-1
S&P 1=+1
Ftse 26=+1
Nik -80=-1
Futures 75=+1
Market Sentiment -1

Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow 181=+4
Nas 39=+2
S&P 20=+2
Ftse 147=+1
Nik 113=+1
Futures 75=+1
Market Sentiment +11

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow 14=+2
Nas +7=+1
S&P -2=-1
Ftse -57=-1
Nik -351=-1
Futures -19=-1
Market Sentiment -1

Monday, September 10, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow -250=-4
Nas -49=-2
S&P -25=-2
Ftse -122=-1
Nik -135=-1
Futures -100=-1
Market Sentiment -11

Friday, September 7, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow 58 =+4
Nas 8 =+1
S&P 6 =+1
Ftse 43 =+1
Nik 99 =+1
Futures 6 =+1
Market Sentiment 9

Thursday, September 6, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow -143 =-4
Nas -24 =-2
S&P -17 =-2
Ftse -106 =-1
Nik -262 =-1
Futures -30 =-1
Market Sentiment -11

Wednesday, September 5, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow 91 =+4
Nas 34 =+2
S&P 15 =+2
Ftse 62 =+1
Nik -104 =-1
Futures 86 =+1
Market Sentiment 9

Tuesday, September 4, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow holiday
Nas “
S&P “
Ftse 12 =+1
Nik -44 =-1
Futures -9 =-1
Market Sentiment -1 from a possible 3

Monday, September 3, 2007

Market Sentiment

Dow 119 =+4
Nas 31 =+2
S&P 16 =+2
Ftse 91 =+1
Nik 415 =+1
Futures 14 =+1
Market Sentiment 11