Think Financial Markets - Excellence In Trading Financial Markets
Market Sentiment
It is essential that we have a general feeling of which direction our market may trade on any given day.
To achieve this it is necessary to be aware of how global markets have performed on the previous day as well as during the night.
We measure this sentiment by allocating points to certain global indicies to measure their strength or weakness.
We look firstly to The Dow Jones Index. This index is one of the world’s most influential and as such rates very highly in determining the daily sentiment.
We allocate between 2 pts plus or minus if the overnight movement is less than 50pts or 4pts if over 50pts
The next most important indicator is the SPI200 which is the futures contract covering the Australian markets top 200 stocks and trades almost 24hours per day.
We also allocate between 2 and 4 pts as per the Dow.
Then we add both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 indicies from the U.S they are allocated points as follows
Nasdaq above /below 30 ,plus or minus 2pts or less than 30, 1pt
S&P 500 above /below 15, plus or minus 2pts or less than 15, 1pt
Next we add the FTSE 100 results from England and the NIKKEI 250 from Japan which are allocated 1pt for a plus or minus result.
The maximum points on our table are 14 and variations of this will gauge bullish or bearish sentiment.
Other very important overnight markets to be taken into consideration when trading the Australian market are firstly the strength or weakness in the Aussie dollar versus the US dollar and we rarely have a good day if the commodity markets have been sold down during the night.
Friday, May 29, 2009
Market Sentiment
S&P 14 = 1
Nasdaq 21 = 1
Ftse -29 =-1
Nikkei 13 = 1
Futures 31 = 2
Market Sentiment 8
Australian shares are expected to open higher as US stocks staged a late rally to post solid gains at the close.
US energy and oil stocks led the gains on stronger commodity prices, and local resources and energy stocks should benefit.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -19=-1
S&P 500 -17=-2
Ftse 5 = 1
Nikkei 128 = 1
Futures -29=-2
Market Sentiment -7
Australian shares are expected to open lower as caution returned to US markets after Tuesday's unexpected rally.
Concerns were fuelled by auto giant General Motors moving further towards bankruptcy.
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 58=2
S&P 500 23=2
Ftse 46 = 1
Nikkei -36 =- 1
Futures 65= 4
Market Sentiment 12
Australian shares are expected to open higher after strong gains in US and European stocks after better than expected US consumer confidence data raised hopes of economic recovery.
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq holiday
S&P 500 holiday
Ftse holiday
Nikkei -121 =- 1
Futures -8= -2
Market Sentiment -3
Australian shares are expected to open slightly lower following small losses yesterday.
Stock and commodity markets in the US and London were closed overnight for public holidays, meaning there is little direction for local shares.
Monday, May 25, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -3 =-1
S&P 500 -1 =-1
Ftse 20 = 1
Nikkei -38 =- 1
Futures -3= -2
Market Sentiment -6
US stocks fell for a fourth day on Friday on persistent worries about the US budget deficit, with US Treasuries and the dollar losing ground.
Wall Street may feel more pressure in this holiday-shortened week unless a raft of economic data, including consumer confidence, home sales and GDP, restores the optimism that had driven a two-month rally before it faded in the past few days.
Friday, May 22, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -33 =-2
S&P 500 -15 =-2
Ftse -123 =- 1
Nikkei -80 =- 1
Futures -57= -4
Market Sentiment -14
Australian shares are likely to fall after another US weekly unemployment claims record raised concerns that the recent rally in equities was too fast.
Investor sentiment was also dented by a warning from ratings agency Standard & Poor's that it may downgrade Britain's debt ratings.
Wall St equities finished lower, precious metals were higher, but copper and oil also both were lower.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -7 =- 1
S&P 500 -5 =-1
Ftse -14 =- 1
Nikkei 54 = 1
Futures 2= 2
Market Sentiment -4
The Australian share market may open little changed, with gains in commodity prices boosting energy producers and miners, mitigating the effect of declines in equities on Wall Street.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 2 = 1
S&P 500 -2 =-1
Ftse 36 = 1
Nikkei 252 = 1
Futures –2= -2
Market Sentiment -2
The Australian share market may open higher, after European exchanges gained on optimism the global economy is starting to recover while US markets were little changed.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 52 = 2
S&P 500 27 = 2
Ftse 98 = 1
Nikkei -226 = -1
Futures 63 = 4
Market Sentiment 12
The Australian share market is expected to open higher after US stocks gained on better homebuilder sentiment and positive comments about banks from analysts.
Oil and industrial metals also gained overnight, suggesting energy and mining stocks will increase.
Monday, May 18, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -9 =- 1
S&P 500 -10 = -1
Ftse -14 =- 1
Nikkei 171 = 1
Futures -42 =- 2
Market Sentiment -8
The Australian share market is expected to open the week lower, following a poor lead from Wall Street.
CommSec chief economist Craig James said he thought the Australian market would drop 30-40 points on Monday.
"We have got this negative lead-in from Wall Street, the Dow Jones was down three quarters of a per cent," Mr James said.
"The broader market was off about one per cent, so that suggests we will probably play follow the leader," he said.
Friday, May 15, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 25 = 1
S&P 500 9 = 1
Ftse 31 = 1
Nikkei -246 =- 1
Futures 11 = 2
Market Sentiment 6
The Australian sharemarket has slumped 3.44 per cent, weighed down by big falls amongst the mining and financial stocks, and after Wall Street tumbled overnight on the back of worse-than-expected retail data, which revived concerns for the timeframe for the US economy's recovery.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -52 = -2
S&P 500 -24 = -2
Ftse -94 =- 1
Nikkei 42 = 1
Futures –89 = -4
Market Sentiment -12
The Australian sharemarket is expected to open weaker after Wall Street fell as a gloomy retail sales report renewed concerns about the US economy.
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -15 = -1
S&P 500 -1 = -1
Ftse -10 =- 1
Nikkei -153 =- 1
Futures 20 = 2
Market Sentiment 2
The Australian share market is expected to open stronger after the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose in the US overnight.
Higher oil, gold and silver prices should also provide the local market with a lift.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -8 = -1
S&P 500 -20 = -2
Ftse -27 =- 1
Nikkei 19 = 1
Futures -51 = -4
Market Sentiment - 11
The Australian share market is expected to open weaker after a fall on Wall Street, before attention turns to the federal budget due this evening.
In economic news on Tuesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases housing finance data for March.
Monday, May 11, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 23 = 1
S&P 500 22 = 2
Ftse 63 = 1
Nikkei 47 = 1
Futures 44 = 2
Market Sentiment 11
The Australian share market is expected to open the week stronger, although investors remain hesitant ahead of Tuesday's federal budget.
The local market should get an early boost thanks to higher commodity prices and gains on Wall Street on Friday but the 2009/10 budget, which Treasurer Wayne Swan will hand down at 1930 AEST on Tuesday, will dominate the market's attention this week.
Friday, May 8, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq –43 = -2
S&P 500 –12 = -2
Ftse 2 = 1
Nikkei 408 = 1
Futures -21 = -2
Market Sentiment -8
The Australian share market is likely to open lower after losses on Wall Street, although commodity and metal prices were higher overnight.
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 5= 1
S&P 500 16=2
Ftse 60 = 1
Nikkei n/a
Futures 67 =4
Market Sentiment 12
The Australian share market has received a positive lead from Wall Street with key indices and commodity prices all higher.
In economic news on Thursday, the Australian Industry Group/Housing Industry Association release their Australian Performance of Construction Index for April.
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -9=-1
S&P 500 -3=-1
Ftse 94 = 1
Nikkei 149 = 1
Futures 10 =2
Market Sentiment no bias
The Australian share market has received flat leads from Wall Street, with key indices, oil and copper ending marginally lower, while precious metals were higher.
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 44=2
S&P 500 30=2
Ftse n/a
Nikkei n/a
Futures 75 =4
Market Sentiment 12
The Australian share market is likely to open in positive territory as both Wall Street and commodity prices were higher overnight.
Monday, May 4, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 2=1
S&P 500 5=1
Ftse -1=-1
Nikkei 149= 1
Futures 23 =2
Market Sentiment 5
The Australian share market is likely to open higher after a positive day on Wall Street on Friday.
In economic news on Monday, Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases its house price index data for the March quarter.
Friday, May 1, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 5=1
S&P 500 -1=-1
Ftse 54=1
Nikkei 334= 1
Futures 18 =2
Market Sentiment 2
The Australian sharemarket is expected to open slightly higher after mixed trade on Wall Street and strong gains in Europe.