Think Financial Markets - Excellence In Trading Financial Markets
Market Sentiment
It is essential that we have a general feeling of which direction our market may trade on any given day.
To achieve this it is necessary to be aware of how global markets have performed on the previous day as well as during the night.
We measure this sentiment by allocating points to certain global indicies to measure their strength or weakness.
We look firstly to The Dow Jones Index. This index is one of the world’s most influential and as such rates very highly in determining the daily sentiment.
We allocate between 2 pts plus or minus if the overnight movement is less than 50pts or 4pts if over 50pts
The next most important indicator is the SPI200 which is the futures contract covering the Australian markets top 200 stocks and trades almost 24hours per day.
We also allocate between 2 and 4 pts as per the Dow.
Then we add both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 indicies from the U.S they are allocated points as follows
Nasdaq above /below 30 ,plus or minus 2pts or less than 30, 1pt
S&P 500 above /below 15, plus or minus 2pts or less than 15, 1pt
Next we add the FTSE 100 results from England and the NIKKEI 250 from Japan which are allocated 1pt for a plus or minus result.
The maximum points on our table are 14 and variations of this will gauge bullish or bearish sentiment.
Other very important overnight markets to be taken into consideration when trading the Australian market are firstly the strength or weakness in the Aussie dollar versus the US dollar and we rarely have a good day if the commodity markets have been sold down during the night.
Friday, January 30, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -51=- 2
S&P 500 -29=-2
Ftse -105=-1
Nikkei 145=1
Futures -96=-4
Market Sentiment -12
The Australian sharemarket is likely to open in the red following heavy falls on Wall Street.
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 53= 2
S&P 500 28=2
Ftse 101=1
Nikkei 45=1
Futures 63=4
Market Sentiment 14
The Australian sharemarket has risen 1.5 per cent as the banks rallied and sales from grocery giant Woolworths showed resilience against the economic downturn.
On the economic front on Wednesday, the latest read on inflation showed the cost of living had dropped by the largest margin in 10 years in the December quarter, as the consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.3 per cent.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 15= 1
S&P 500 9=1
Ftse -15=-1
Nikkei 379=1
Futures 43=1
Market Sentiment 5
The Australian sharemarket is likely to open higher on a positive lead from the US.
Gold, copper and oil were down, but silver was trading higher.
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 12= 1
S&P 500 5=1
Ftse 157=1
Nikkei -63=-1
Futures 16=1
Market Sentiment 5
The Australian sharemarket has received a mixed lead from Wall Street but stronger metal prices have pushed up the Sydney Futures Exchange.
Friday, January 23, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -42=-2
S&P 500 -13=-1
Ftse -8=-1
Nikkei 150=1
Futures -24=-2
Market Sentiment -9
The Australian sharemarket is expected to open lower after US equities declined on a disappointing result at Microsoft Corp and increasing concerns about America's banks.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 66=2
S&P 500 31=2
Ftse -32=-1
Nikkei -164=-1
Futures 46=2
Market Sentiment 8
The Australian sharemarket is expected to open higher, after healthy gains in securities on Wall Street, and oil, silver and copper rose in overnight trading.
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq –88=-2
S&P 500 –45=-2
Ftse -17=-1
Nikkei -191=-1
Futures -92=-4
Market Sentiment -14
The Australian stock market is likely to fall sharply, after US equities slumped more than five per cent on renewed concerns that problems in the banking industry aren't over.
Wall St tumbled on Tuesday, posting its worst day in almost two months, as as the inauguration of President Obama failed to reverse its fortunes.
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq holiday
S&P 500 holiday
Ftse -39=-1
Nikkei 27=1
Futures -14=-2
Market Sentiment -2
The Australian share market has received a negative lead from European stocks, with Wall St closed for Martin Luther King Jr Day.
Local miners are set to follow weakness in the price of base metals and oil overnight, while Australian banks could be weighed down by a very tough session for their counterparts in Europe.
Monday, January 19, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 17=1
S&P 500 6=1
Ftse 26=1
Nikkei 207=1
Futures 10=2
Market Sentiment 10
Australian shares are expected to start the week on a positive note after Wall Street managed its second straight comeback on Friday.
Friday, January 16, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 22=1
S&P 500 1=1
Ftse -59=-1
Nikkei -415=-1
Futures 19=2
Market Sentiment 4
The Australian stock market is expected to open higher after US stocks turned around early losses on optimism about extended bank bailout measures.
Wall Street rose overnight, as investors became hopeful that the government would provide fresh capital to crisis-hit banks, including Bank of America, while falling oil prices buoyed hopes that lower energy costs will spur business and consumer spending.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -57=-2
S&P 500 -29=-2
Ftse -219=-1
Nikkei 25=1
Futures –104=-4
Market Sentiment -12
The Australian share market is set to open weaker after Wall Street tumbled on grim retail data.
US stocks slid more than two per cent as retail sales figures showed consumers cut back much more than expected during the key holiday season.
Fears about the health of the banking sector also mounted as Morgan Stanley analysts forecast that HSBC, Europe's biggest bank, is likely to halve its dividend and may need to raise up to $US30 billion of capital.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 8=1
S&P 500 2=1
Ftse -27=-1
Nikkei –423=-1
Futures no change
Market Sentiment -2
The Australian stock market is expected to open lower after US stocks fell as worries about the recession's impact on corporate profits dogged the market.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -33=-2
S&P 500 -20=-2
Ftse -22-1
Nikkei holiday
Futures -60=-4
Market Sentiment -13
The Australian share market has received a negative lead from Wall Street, as investors worried that fourth-quarter earnings reports would show the global recession is worsening.
In the US overnight, the financial sector was the worst performer as concerns of more losses stemming from the credit crisis pulled down shares of Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase.
In Europe, equities markets ended lower for a fourth straight session, dragged down by weaker energy shares on the back of falling crude.
Monday, January 12, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -45=-2
S&P 500 -19=-2
Ftse -56=-1
Nikkei -40=-1
Futures -65=-4
Market Sentiment -14
The Australian stock market is expected to open lower after disappointing US employment figures saw Wall Street weaker on Friday.
Friday, January 9, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 18=1
S&P 500 3=1
Ftse -2=-1
Nikkei -363=-1
Futures 15=2
Market Sentiment no bias
Australian shares have been given a negative lead from Wall St, which fell overnight after disappointing results from discount retailer Wal-Mart overshadowed hopes the government's economic stimulus plan would boost the country out of recession.
President-elect Barack Obama urged lawmakers to work day and night to pass the stimulus plan, warning the US economy could stay mired in recession for years without bold action.
Gloomy economic news continued around the world, with the Bank of England cutting interest rates by half a percentage point to a record low of 1.5 per cent. England's central bank is widely expected to cut again in February as it battles to prevent Britain from falling into a deep slump.
Retailers across the US received bad news as Wal-Mart cut its quarterly outlook after posting a disappointing 1.7 per cent rise in December sales.
Thursday, January 8, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -53=-2
S&P 500 -31=-2
Ftse -131=-1
Nikkei 158=1
Futures -71=-4
Market Sentiment -12
Australian stocks are poised to drop on concerns over the global economy, after bleak US jobs data and a revenue warning from top chip maker Intel Corp sent Wall Street to its biggest fall in a month.
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 24=1
S&P 500 7=1
Ftse 59=1
Nikkei 38=1
Futures 61=4
Market Sentiment 12
Australian shares are expected to gain, with a positive lead from Wall St after US data painted a negative economic picture, with home sales falling to their lowest level in seven years and the services sector shrinking for a third month in a row in December.
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -4=-1
S&P 500 -4=-1
Ftse 18=1
Nikkei 183=1
Futures 15=2
Market Sentiment -2
The Australian stock market is expected to open in positive territory, despite a negative lead from Wall Street, after the oil price rose above $48 a barrel.
US stocks fell overnight, as investors took profits and concerns grew for telecommunications related shares that wireless growth would slow in the new year.
Monday, January 5, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 55=2
S&P 500 29=2
Ftse 128=1
Nikkei holiday
Futures 107=4
Market Sentiment 13
Australian stocks are set to gain as investors buy in to a view that this year could only be better than last, sentiment that pushed Wall Street up on its first trading day on Friday
Friday, January 2, 2009
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 40=1
S&P 500 13=1
Ftse 73=1
Nikkei 112=1
Futures 55=4
Market Sentiment 12
The Australian stock market is likely to open higher after US equities and commodities rose, although trading volumes will probably be lower than average because of the holiday season.