Think Financial Markets - Excellence In Trading Financial Markets
Market Sentiment
It is essential that we have a general feeling of which direction our market may trade on any given day.
To achieve this it is necessary to be aware of how global markets have performed on the previous day as well as during the night.
We measure this sentiment by allocating points to certain global indicies to measure their strength or weakness.
We look firstly to The Dow Jones Index. This index is one of the world’s most influential and as such rates very highly in determining the daily sentiment.
We allocate between 2 pts plus or minus if the overnight movement is less than 50pts or 4pts if over 50pts
The next most important indicator is the SPI200 which is the futures contract covering the Australian markets top 200 stocks and trades almost 24hours per day.
We also allocate between 2 and 4 pts as per the Dow.
Then we add both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 indicies from the U.S they are allocated points as follows
Nasdaq above /below 30 ,plus or minus 2pts or less than 30, 1pt
S&P 500 above /below 15, plus or minus 2pts or less than 15, 1pt
Next we add the FTSE 100 results from England and the NIKKEI 250 from Japan which are allocated 1pt for a plus or minus result.
The maximum points on our table are 14 and variations of this will gauge bullish or bearish sentiment.
Other very important overnight markets to be taken into consideration when trading the Australian market are firstly the strength or weakness in the Aussie dollar versus the US dollar and we rarely have a good day if the commodity markets have been sold down during the night.
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 40=2
S&P 500 21=2
Ftse 73=1
Nikkei 112=1
Futures 46=2
Market Sentiment 12
The Australian share market is set to firm in final trading day for 2008, tracking an end-of-year rally on Wall Street, but remains on course for the worst ever annual drop.
US stocks climbed overnight, after the government expanded its bailout of the auto industry, bolstering hopes that lawmakers would continue to take steps to minimise the severity of the year-long recession.
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -20=-1
S&P 500 -6=-1
Ftse 103=1
Nikkei 8=1
Futures 16=2
Market Sentiment 0
The Australian stock market is likely to open lower after US equities declined on concerns that Israel's attack on Gaza might disrupt oil production and shipments from the Middle East, pushing energy prices higher.
Resource stocks may gain after the price of commodities advanced, however.
Monday, December 29, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 5=1
S&P 500 5=1
Ftse -39=-1
Nikkei 140=1
Futures 7=2
Market Sentiment 6
Australian stocks are tipped to firm at the open, after Wall Street rallied on higher oil prices, with miners potentially bolstered by a rebound in copper prices from four year lows and by stronger gold futures.
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -11=-1
S&P 500 -7=-1
Ftse 7=1
Nikkei holiday
Futures -99=-4
Market Sentiment -9
The Australian stock market is expected to open lower after falls on Wall Street and on commodity markets.
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -40=-2
S&P 500 -16=-2
Ftse -38=-1
Nikkei 135=1
Futures -11=-2
Market Sentiment -10
The Australian stock market is expected to open lower after falls in most world markets on the back of more negative company news.
From all at Think Financial we wish you a MERRY CHRISTMAS and a HAPPY NEW YEAR
Monday, December 22, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 12=1
S&P 500 3=-1
Ftse -44=-1
Nikkei -79=-1
Futures 11=2
Market Sentiment 0 no bias
The Australian stock market is likely to open marginally higher, but light volumes and ongoing economic uncertainty will see a continuation of volatile conditions.
Friday, December 19, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -27=-1
S&P 500 -20=-2
Ftse 6=1
Nikkei 55=1
Futures -37=-2
Market Sentiment -7
The Australian stock market is expected to open lower, tracking a decline on Wall Street overnight as energy shares were hammered by sharply lower oil prices.
US crude prices dropped more than nine per cent to $US36 a barrel, as slumping demand and swelling US inventories offset OPEC's record supply cut agreement.
Elsewhere in commodities, precious metals and copper in New York also were down.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -11=-1
S&P 500 -9=-1
Ftse 15=1
Nikkei 45=1
Futures -45=-2
Market Sentiment -6
The Australian share market is set to open slightly lower, following a negative lead from Wall Street and a steep fall in the price of oil.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 82=2
S&P 500 39=2
Ftse 32=1
Nikkei -97=-1
Futures 58=4
Market Sentiment 12
The Australian stock market has received a positive lead from the US overnight, with Wall Street surging in mid-afternoon trade after the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates to a target range of zero to 0.25 per cent, down from one per cent.
Prices of precious metals were higher, although copper and oil both fell.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -32=-2
S&P 500 -11=-1
Ftse -3=-1
Nikkei 429=1
Futures -30=-2
Market Sentiment -9
The Australian stock market has received mixed leads from overseas overnight, with Wall Street and oil trading lower, but precious metals firmer.
Monday, December 15, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 33=2
S&P 500 6=2
Ftse -108=-1
Nikkei -485=-1
Futures 83=4
Market Sentiment 10
The Australian share market is set to open the week stronger after US stocks defied the uncertainty surrounding the fate of US carmakers, ending 0.75 per cent higher.
With the $14 billion auto bailout running into a senate roadblock, White House jumped into the fray, saying it may provide emergency funding to the struggling auto industry, helping Wall St stage a comeback.
However, the local market's positive momentum may be checked by weakness in European and Asian markets, which plummeted on Friday.
Friday, December 12, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -58=-2
S&P 500 –26=-2
Ftse 21=1
Nikkei 60=1
Futures -46=-2
Market Sentiment -8
The Australian stock market is expected to open lower after shares in the US slumped on a big rise in unemployment claims and a surprising jump in the trade deficit.
Resource stocks may gain after commodity prices advanced.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 18=1
S&P 500 11=2
Ftse -14=-1
Nikkei 264=1
Futures 41=2
Market Sentiment 9
Australian shares are expected to rise at the open after Wall Street strengthened late in the session, as rising oil and commodities prices helped offset nervousness about the fate of the ailing US auto bailout.
The push to rescue US car markers became tied up in partisan wrangling as the US House of Representatives appeared set to vote on a proposed $US15 billion bridge loan, but congressional Republicans offered an alternative plan.
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -24=-1
S&P 500 -21=-2
Ftse 81=1
Nikkei 67=1
Futures -26=-2
Market Sentiment -7
The Australian stock market is expected to open lower after US shares fell as negative corporate news reminded investors that the global economy's troubles won't ease soon.
Monday, December 8, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 64=2
S&P 500 31=2
Ftse -114=-1
Nikkei -7=-1
Futures 52=2
Market Sentiment 8
The Australian stock market is expected to open stronger after Wall Street surged on news of massive US job losses.
Friday, December 5, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -47=-2
S&P 500-26=-2
Ftse -6=-1
Nikkei -80=-1
Futures -36=-2
Market Sentiment -12
The Australian stock market is expected to open weaker after US stocks fell overnight.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -138=-2
S&P 500-64=-2
Ftse -223=-1
Nikkei -115=-1
Futures -170=-4
Market Sentiment -14
The Australian share market is set for a sharp fall at the open after heavy losses on Wall Street and European markets, with mining and energy stocks expected to come under pressure.
A large cut in interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected at 1430 AEDT, which the market could draw support from, but not before a six per cent dive in Europe and a five per cent fall in the US are factored it.
US stocks plunged on fears that the US economy had finally tipped into recession, with US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke presenting a grim assessment of the US economy.
European stocks fell as mounting concerns about a prolonged global slowdown and weaker demand for oil and metals hurt market sentiment.
Monday, December 1, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 3=1
S&P 500 9=1
Ftse 62=1
Nikkei 139=1
Futures 15=4
Market Sentiment 12
The Australian stock market is expected to open stronger on Monday after a rally on Wall Street, before the focus turns to the next interest rate cut and the latest economic growth figures.