Think Financial Markets - Excellence In Trading Financial Markets
Market Sentiment
It is essential that we have a general feeling of which direction our market may trade on any given day.
To achieve this it is necessary to be aware of how global markets have performed on the previous day as well as during the night.
We measure this sentiment by allocating points to certain global indicies to measure their strength or weakness.
We look firstly to The Dow Jones Index. This index is one of the world’s most influential and as such rates very highly in determining the daily sentiment.
We allocate between 2 pts plus or minus if the overnight movement is less than 50pts or 4pts if over 50pts
The next most important indicator is the SPI200 which is the futures contract covering the Australian markets top 200 stocks and trades almost 24hours per day.
We also allocate between 2 and 4 pts as per the Dow.
Then we add both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 indicies from the U.S they are allocated points as follows
Nasdaq above /below 30 ,plus or minus 2pts or less than 30, 1pt
S&P 500 above /below 15, plus or minus 2pts or less than 15, 1pt
Next we add the FTSE 100 results from England and the NIKKEI 250 from Japan which are allocated 1pt for a plus or minus result.
The maximum points on our table are 14 and variations of this will gauge bullish or bearish sentiment.
Other very important overnight markets to be taken into consideration when trading the Australian market are firstly the strength or weakness in the Aussie dollar versus the US dollar and we rarely have a good day if the commodity markets have been sold down during the night.
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas -1= -1
S&P -10= -1
Ftse -47=-1
Nik -44=-1
Futures -27= -1
Market Sentiment - 9
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas 11= +1
S&P 5= +1
Ftse 45=+1
Nik 192=+1
Futures 18= +1
Market Sentiment 9
A SOARING Australian dollar, an expanding sharemarket and an unprecedented oil price are vying for centre stage in investors' minds.
Investors, who are betting that the Reserve Bank will next week raise interest rates, have propelled the dollar past US92¢, its highest in more than 23 years.
The sharemarket is also booming, notching up a record close of 6792.1 points, as measured by the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index.
And oil futures have hopscotched to a record high of $US93.20 a barrel, helped by the weak US dollar.
Monday, October 29, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas 53= +2
S&P 21= +2
Ftse 85=+1
Nik 221=+1
Futures 58= +1
Market Sentiment 11
THE Australian sharemarket is predicted to begin trading almost 50 points higher today after a strong finish by stocks in New York on Friday, which was partly triggered by investors anticipating a US interest rate cut this week.
A market commentator with MFS Group, Guy Hutchings, said a further rate cut by the US Federal Reserve was predicted in response to the grim state of the housing market and seemingly deteriorating business sentiment.
"I expect the Australian stockmarket to open well ahead today, up about 50 points following a solid performance on Wall Street and European markets."
However, Mr Hutchings said an early market rally could later be deflated, with the prospect of the Reserve Bank lifting interest rates next month, dampening Australian investors' spirits.
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas -25= -1
S&P -4= -1
Ftse -32= -1
Nik -92=-1
Futures 32= +1
Market Sentiment -5
HOME owners - and John Howard - are bracing for the sixth successive interest rate rise since the last federal election after underlying inflation slammed to the top of the Reserve Bank's target band of 2 to 3 per cent.
A predicted decision on Melbourne Cup day for a 0.25 percentage point increase, only weeks before the election, would boost the average home loan rate above 8.5 per cent for the first time since November 1996.
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas 45= +2
S&P 13= +2
Ftse 55= +1
Nik 12=+1
Futures 2= +1
Market Sentiment 11
ECONOMISTS are warning that the No. 1 "success disease" of the Australian economy — skills shortages and associated wages pressure — could soon fuel inflation, as both sides of politics brace for the most keenly awaited price figures in years.
As financial markets increased predictions of an election campaign interest rate rise, a survey of economists by BusinessDay found a broad consensus that wage pressures are likely to re-emerge as a threat to inflation, stoked by the lowest unemployment for decades and booming economic growth.
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas 29= +1
S&P 6= +1
Ftse -69= -1
Nik -376= -1
Futures -66= -1
Market Sentiment 1
Monday, October 22, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas -74= -2
S&P -39= -2
Ftse -82= -1
Nik -294= -1
Futures -155= -1
Market Sentiment -11
Thursday, October 11, 2007
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas 17= +1
S&P 13= +1
Ftse +75=+1
Nik 94=+1
Futures 51= +1
Market Sentiment 9
AS I AM ON HOLIDAYS FOR A WEEK THE UPDATES MAY BE SPASMODIC
BUT WILL DO MY BEST TO KEEP YOU INFORMED
Tuesday, October 9, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas 7=+1
S&P -5=-1
Ftse -55=-1
Nik -27=-1
Futures 4= +1
Market Sentiment -3
THE sharemarket hit another record close after stronger-than-expected US employment data on Friday calmed concerns over slowing growth in the world's biggest economy, and higher metal prices boosted local resources stocks.
Monday, October 8, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas 47= +2
S&P 15= +2
Ftse 48= +1
Nik -27= -1
Futures 60= +1
Market Sentiment 9
THE Australian stock market is expected to open stronger today, after solid monthly jobs data in the US boosted stocks on Wall Street on Friday.
"I expect the Australian share market to open strongly … up about 50 to 60 points, following record-breaking performances on Wall Street and European markets, as investors responded to solid US employment growth data and indications that a resilient US economy continues to resist the pull of a housing-induced recession," MFS Investment Management chief executive Guy Hutchings said.
Friday, October 5, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas 4= +1
S&P 3= +1
Ftse 13=+1
Nik -107=-1
Futures 30= +1
Market Sentiment 5
AUSTRALIAN investors will soon be able to directly access a range of stocks and sectors across global markets through just one trade.
Investment manager Barclays Global Investors has unveiled a new range of exchange-traded funds, known as iShares, that will list on the Australian Securities Exchange.
Although the stock will trade like a normal share, it will give local investors direct access to companies of varying caps in the US, Europe, Japan and the Middle East.
"We really think of it as a way of bringing international markets here to the Australian market and listing them on the ASX," Barclays Global Investors chief executive Morry Waked said yesterday.
"Effectively, Australians can now trade via a single share with exposures to international equity markets."
Thursday, October 4, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas -18= -1
S&P -7= -1
Ftse 35= +1
Nik 153= +1
Futures -38= -1
Market Sentiment -5
THE national trade deficit swelled to a worse-than-expected $1.6 billion in August, as a surge in the import bill added to the negative effect on exports of the high Australian dollar.
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas 6= +1
S&P -1= -1
Ftse -6= -1
Nik 201= +1
Futures -8= -1
Market Sentiment -3
Tuesday, October 2, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas 39=+2
S&P +20=+2
Ftse 39=+1
Nik 60=+1
Futures -2=-1
Market Sentiment 9
THE Reserve Bank is expected to leave rates unchanged when it meets today but may yet push them higher during the election campaign.
The continued likelihood of a near-term lift in rates coincides with the Australian dollar hitting an 18-year peak of US89.26¢ yesterday, and analysts see it passing US90¢ before the end of the month.
On a different note it may also be prudent to be aware that October is reporting month in the US
Monday, October 1, 2007
Market Sentiment
Nas -8=-1
S&P -5=-1
Ftse -19=-1
Nik -47=-1
Futures 19=+1
Market Sentiment -5
THE Reserve Bank of Australia board meets tomorrow in Sydney to decide on official interest rates against a backdrop of the Australian dollar being having run up on Friday to US88.88c, its highest level in 23 years, before dropping back to close in New York on Friday at US88.15c.