Think Financial Markets - Excellence In Trading Financial Markets
Market Sentiment
It is essential that we have a general feeling of which direction our market may trade on any given day.
To achieve this it is necessary to be aware of how global markets have performed on the previous day as well as during the night.
We measure this sentiment by allocating points to certain global indicies to measure their strength or weakness.
We look firstly to The Dow Jones Index. This index is one of the world’s most influential and as such rates very highly in determining the daily sentiment.
We allocate between 2 pts plus or minus if the overnight movement is less than 50pts or 4pts if over 50pts
The next most important indicator is the SPI200 which is the futures contract covering the Australian markets top 200 stocks and trades almost 24hours per day.
We also allocate between 2 and 4 pts as per the Dow.
Then we add both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 indicies from the U.S they are allocated points as follows
Nasdaq above /below 30 ,plus or minus 2pts or less than 30, 1pt
S&P 500 above /below 15, plus or minus 2pts or less than 15, 1pt
Next we add the FTSE 100 results from England and the NIKKEI 250 from Japan which are allocated 1pt for a plus or minus result.
The maximum points on our table are 14 and variations of this will gauge bullish or bearish sentiment.
Other very important overnight markets to be taken into consideration when trading the Australian market are firstly the strength or weakness in the Aussie dollar versus the US dollar and we rarely have a good day if the commodity markets have been sold down during the night.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 10 =1
S&P 500 21=2
Ftse 102 =1
Nikkei 208=1
Futures 92 =1
Market Sentiment 10
The Australian stock market is expected to rise for a second straight day after Wall St rallied on positive private sector employment data.
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 55 =2
S&P 500 29=2
Ftse 48 =1
Nikkei -194=-1
Futures 84 =1
Market Sentiment 9
The sharemarket is expected to snap a three-day losing streak, after Wall Street gained over two per cent easing worries about the state of the economy.
But resource firms look set to slide on falling commodities prices, with predictions oil could fall below $US100 a barrel by mid-July.
Airline stocks should continue to benefit from the decline in oil prices. Qantas Airways Ltd recently slashed 1,500 jobs in a bid to cut costs as oil hit a record high of $US148.60.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -46 =-2
S&P 500 –23=-2
Ftse -40 =-1
Nikkei 19=1
Futures -99 =-1
Market Sentiment -9
The Australian stock market is expected to open sharply lower after Wall St fell two per cent on predictions the worst of the housing crisis was yet to come.
Monday, July 28, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 30 =2
S&P 500 5=1
Ftse -10 =-1
Nikkei -269=-1
Futures 24 =1
Market Sentiment 4
The sharemarket is expected to make further losses after tumbling 3.4 per cent on National Australia Bank Ltd's sub-prime write-downs on Friday, as Australia and New Zealand Banking Group announced similar credit-related losses.
Wall Street faces a bundle of economic data this week that could push up the US sharemarket, after recent releases have proved better-than-expected.
Friday, July 25, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -46 =-2
S&P 500 -30=-2
Ftse -88 =-1
Nikkei 290=1
Futures -102 =-1
Market Sentiment -9
The Australian stock market is expected to open lower after US stocks declined overnight as a weaker-than-expected housing market report was released.
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 22 =1
S&P 500 5=1
Ftse 86 =1
Nikkei 128=1
Futures 12 =1
Market Sentiment 7
The sharemarket is expected to hold gains at the open from the previous session, after the US House of Representatives approved a rescue plan for Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
Wall Street posted modest gains on financial firms as investors hoped the lawmakers would approve the bill, which they did after the close.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 24 =2
S&P 500 17=2
Ftse -40 =-1
Nikkei 381=1
Futures 34 =1
Market Sentiment 9
The sharemarket is expected to open higher after a late surge in US bank stocks pushed up Wall Street from an early slide
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -3 =-1
S&P 500 - 1=-1
Ftse 28 =1
Nikkei -84=-1
Futures -32 =-1
Market Sentiment -5
The sharemarket looks set to open slightly weaker after rising 3.5 per cent in the previous session, the largest one-day gain in four months.
Monday, July 21, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -30 =-2
S&P 500 1=1
Ftse 90 =1
Nikkei -84=-1
Futures 59 =1
Market Sentiment 4
The Australian stock market is expected to open higher after US stocks closed on a fairly positive note on Friday following investor optimism about the troubled financial sector.
Friday, July 18, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 27 =2
S&P 500 15=2
Ftse 136 =1
Nikkei 127=1
Futures 37 =1
Market Sentiment 11
The Australian stock market is expected to open higher after US stocks ended positively on a stronger-than-expected earnings result from investment and commercial bank JP Morgan Chase and falling energy prices.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 69 =2
S&P 500 30=2
Ftse -21 =-1
Nikkei 6=1
Futures 66 =1
Market Sentiment 9
The Australian stock market is expected to open higher after another steep fall in the oil price eased cost concerns in the US and helped drive Wall St over 2.5 per cent higher.
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 3 =1
S&P 500 -13=-1
Ftse -129 =-1
Nikkei -256=-1
Futures -37 =-1
Market Sentiment -7
The Australian stock market is expected to open lower after US stocks sank on lingering concerns about the health of the US financial system, fanned by troubles at large mortgage financiers Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
Local energy stocks are expected to suffer from a large dip in the oil price.
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -26 =-1
S&P 500 -11=-1
Ftse 39 =1
Nikkei -29=-1
Futures -37 =-1
Market Sentiment -5
The Australian stock market is expected to open lower after US stocks slipped on lingering concerns about the health of mortgage finance firms, although rising metals prices should boost resource firms.
US stocks shed initial gains as investors remained spooked by the fragility of the financial sector, despite the US Federal Reserve and Treasury Department pledging to support stricken lenders Freddie Mac and Frannie Mae.
Monday, July 14, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -19 =-1
S&P 500 -14=-1
Ftse -145 =-1
Nikkei -27=-1
Futures -74 =-1
Market Sentiment -9
The Australian share market is expected to open lower today after Wall St fell over one per cent on Friday.
Friday, July 11, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 23 =1
S&P 500 9=1
Ftse -123 =-1
Nikkei 15=1
Futures 39 =1
Market Sentiment 7
The Australian share market is expected to open higher after US equities gained overnight on reports Dow Chemical will take over a rival firm and reassuring comments from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke.
Gains in the gold and oil price overnight may also support resource stocks.
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -60 =-2
S&P 500 -29=-2
Ftse 89 =1
Nikkei 19=1
Futures -65 =-1
Market Sentiment -7
The Australian share market is expected to open lower today after US equities fell as investors grappled with renewed worries about the soundness of the financial sector.
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 51 =2
S&P 500 21=2
Ftse -72 =-1
Nikkei -327=-1
Futures 38 =1
Market Sentiment 7
The Australian share market is expected to open higher today after US equities gained as the oil price fell and the Federal Reserve chairman indicated the central bank was likely to extend emergency loans to investment firms.
Mining and energy stocks may decline after oil and metals prices slipped overnight.
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -2 =-1
S&P 500 -11=-1
Ftse 100 =1
Nikkei 122=1
Futures -47 =1
Market Sentiment -5
The Australian share market is expected to open lower on Tuesday after US equities declined overnight as financial companies fell on concerns they may have to raise more capital.
Monday, July 7, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq closed
S&P 500 closed
Ftse -64 =-1
Nikkei -28=-1
Futures -17 =-1
Market Sentiment -3
The sharemarket is likely to fall, with weaker oil and metals prices seen weighing down on resource firms.
Friday, July 4, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -6 =-1
S&P 500 1=1
Ftse 50 =1
Nikkei -21=-1
Futures 14 =1
Market Sentiment 5
The Australian share market is expected to open higher today after the Dow rose on Wall Street overnight.
At 0720 AEST on the Sydney Futures exchange, the September share price index was up 14 points to 5,014.
In equities today, energy firms are likely to rise after oil prices rushed to record over $145 a barrel on Thursday, extending a rally that has added 50 percent to prices this year.
Mining firms may decline after a stronger U.S. dollar weighed down on metals prices, including gold and copper.
Thursday, July 3, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -54 =-2
S&P 500 -23= -2
Ftse -54 =-1
Nikkei -177=-1
Futures -97 =-1
Market Sentiment -11
The Australian share market is expected to open lower after Wall Street stocks tumbled in volatile trade as crude oil prices raced to record highs above $US144 a barrel, triggering fresh economic jitters.
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq 12 =1
S&P 500 5= 1
Ftse -146 =-1
Nikkei -19=-1
Futures -8=-1
Market Sentiment 1
Reuters/AAP
Australian shares are likely to struggle as worries about high oil prices continue to dampen investor sentiment, though strong commodity prices may buoy the resource sector.
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
Market Sentiment
Nasdaq -23 =-1
S&P 500 2=1
Ftse 96 =1
Nikkei -63=-1
Futures 17=1
Market Sentiment 3
AAP, with Reuters
The Australian share market is expected to open higher on Tuesday after the Dow and S&P 500 finished slightly stronger on Wall Street overnight.
However, financial firms such as Macquarie Group may decline after their US counterparts fell on further negative analyst comments.