Think Financial Markets - Excellence In Trading Financial Markets

Think Financial Markets - Excellence In Trading Financial Markets

Market Sentiment

It is essential that we have a general feeling of which direction our market may trade on any given day.

To achieve this it is necessary to be aware of how global markets have performed on the previous day as well as during the night.

We measure this sentiment by allocating points to certain global indicies to measure their strength or weakness.

We look firstly to The Dow Jones Index. This index is one of the world’s most influential and as such rates very highly in determining the daily sentiment.

We allocate between 2 pts plus or minus if the overnight movement is less than 50pts or 4pts if over 50pts

The next most important indicator is the SPI200 which is the futures contract covering the Australian markets top 200 stocks and trades almost 24hours per day.

We also allocate between 2 and 4 pts as per the Dow.

Then we add both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 indicies from the U.S they are allocated points as follows

Nasdaq above /below 30 ,plus or minus 2pts or less than 30, 1pt

S&P 500 above /below 15, plus or minus 2pts or less than 15, 1pt

Next we add the FTSE 100 results from England and the NIKKEI 250 from Japan which are allocated 1pt for a plus or minus result.

The maximum points on our table are 14 and variations of this will gauge bullish or bearish sentiment.

Other very important overnight markets to be taken into consideration when trading the Australian market are firstly the strength or weakness in the Aussie dollar versus the US dollar and we rarely have a good day if the commodity markets have been sold down during the night.


Monday, January 31, 2011

Market Sentiment

Dow 166= -4
Nasdaq -68 = -2
S&P 500 -23 = -2
Ftse -84 = -1
Nikkei -118 =-1
Futures -49 = -4
Market Sentiment -14

The Australian market has received strong, negative leads from offshore trading over the weekend, with continuing uncertainty stemming from political unrest in North Africa and the Middle East.
All key indices - bar Shanghai's - were lower, while investors turned to safe haven investments, with bonds and precious metals up sharply.

Friday, January 28, 2011

Market Sentiment

Dow 4= 2
Nasdaq 16 = 1
S&P 500 3 = 1
Ftse -4 = -1
Nikkei 77 =1
Futures 11 = 2

Market Sentiment 6
The Australian sharemarket is receiving flat to positive leads from offshore trading overnight, with Wall St's key indices slightly higher, while precious metals and oil were lower.
In economics news on Friday, the Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) conducts a tender process for $700 million of the December 2013 bond line.

Thursday, January 27, 2011

Market Sentiment

Dow 8= 2
Nasdaq 20 = 1
S&P 500 5 = 1
Ftse 52 = 1
Nikkei -63 =-1
Futures 29 = 2
Market Sentiment 6
The Australian market is receiving broadly positive leads from offshore trading overnight, with key equities indices higher in both the US and Europe, along with commodities.

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Market Sentiment

Dow 109 = 4
Nasdaq 28 = 1
S&P 500 7 = 1
Ftse 48 = 1
Nikkei 71 =1
Futures 9 = 2
Market Sentiment 10

The Australian market is receiving positive leads from offshore trading overnight, with Wall Street and European markets decisively higher, while metals were mixed and oil was lower.
In economics news on Tuesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases the consumer price index for the December quarter, at 1130 AEDT.

Monday, January 24, 2011

Market Sentiment

Dow 49 = 2
Nasdaq -15 = -1
S&P 500 3 = 1
Ftse 28 = 1
Nikkei -163 =-1
Futures 10 = 2
Market Sentiment 4
Australian stocks look set to make modest gains on Monday on a mixed offshore lead but analysts warn a pause in global equity markets' recent rallies is now likely.

The Australian market has received mixed to positive leads from offshore trading over the weekend, with two of three key Wall St indices higher, whilst energy and precious metals prices were lower.

Friday, January 21, 2011

Market Sentiment

Dow -2 = -2
Nasdaq -21 = -1
S&P 500 -2 = -1
Ftse -109 = -1
Nikkei -120 =-1
Futures -12 = -2
Market Sentiment -8
The Australian market is receiving mixed leads from offshore trading overnight on Thursday, with Wall Street indices rebounding after heavy losses in Asia and Europe on China's latest economic data.
In economics news on Friday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases international trade price indices for the December quarter 2010.

Thursday, January 20, 2011

Market Sentiment

Dow -13 = -2
Nasdaq -40 = -2
S&P 500 -13 = -1
Ftse -80 = -1
Nikkei 38 =1
Futures -49 = -4
Market Sentiment -9
The Australian market is receiving mixed leads from offshore trading overnight, with European and Asian equities markets higher, but Wall Street lower, along with precious metals and oil.

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Market Sentiment

Dow 51 = 4
Nasdaq 11 = 1
S&P 500 2 = 1
Ftse 71 = 1
Nikkei 16 =1
Futures 17 = 2
Market Sentiment 10
The Australian sharemarket is receiving positive leads from offshore trading overnight, as Wall Street returns to work from a long weekend.

Equities indices generally were higher, as were precious metals and copper. Oil was down slightly.

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Market Sentiment

Dow holiday
Nasdaq holiday
S&P 500 holiday
Ftse -16 =- 1
Nikkei 4 =1
Futures 3 = 2
Market Sentiment 2
The Australian sharemarket has ended lower after extending losses in afternoon trade, despite receiving generally positive leads from offshore trading over the weekend, with Wall Street indices and oil higher.

Monday, January 17, 2011

Market Sentiment

Dow 55= 4
Nasdaq 20 =1
S&P 500 9 = 1
Ftse -22 =- 1
Nikkei -90 =-1
Futures 11 = 2
Market Sentiment 6

The Australian sharemarket has received generally positive leads from offshore trading over the weekend, with Wall Street indices and oil higher, although precious metals were lower. Copper surged in New York.

In economics news, TD Securities and the Melbourne Institute release their inflation gauge for December.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases data on new motor vehicles sales in December, and figures on lending finance in November.

There is no equities news scheduled on Monday.

Friday, January 14, 2011

Market Sentiment

Dow -24= - 2
Nasdaq -2 = - 1
S&P 500 -2 = - 1
Ftse -27 =- 1
Nikkei 77 =1
Futures -13 = -2
Market Sentiment -6
The Australian market is receiving mixed leads from offshore trading overnight. Wall St was flat after European equities markets were higher. Commodities were lower.

Thursday, January 13, 2011

Market Sentiment

Dow 84= 4
Nasdaq 21 =1
S&P 500 11 = 1
Ftse 37 = 1
Nikkei 2 =1
Futures 26 = 2
Market Sentiment 10
The Australian market is receiving strongly positive leads from offshore trading overnight, with all key indices and commodities prices higher.

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Market Sentiment

Dow 34= 2
Nasdaq 9 =1
S&P 500 5 = 1
Ftse 58 = 1
Nikkei -30 =-1
Futures 10 = 2
Market Sentiment 6
The Australian market is receiving generally positive leads from offshore trading overnight, with rises in equity markets in the US, Asia and Europe, and stronger precious metals and energy prices.

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Market Sentiment

Dow -37=- 2
Nasdaq 5 =1
S&P 500 -2 =- 1
Ftse -28 =- 1
Nikkei holiday
Futures -14 = -2
Market Sentiment -5

The Australian market is receiving mixed leads from offshore trading overnight, with equities markets generally lower, but precious metals and oil were higher.
In economics news on Tuesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics issues data on international trade in goods and services in November.

Monday, January 10, 2011

Market Sentiment

Dow -22=- 2
Nasdaq -7 =-1
S&P 500 -2 =- 1
Ftse -35 =- 1
Nikkei 11= 1
Futures -17 = -2
Market Sentiment -6
The Australian market has received generally negative leads from offshore trading over the weekend, with most key equities indices lower, along with commodities.

In economics news on Monday, The Advantage Job index (formerly the Olivier Job index) for December is due for release, the Australian Industry Group and the Housing Industry Association issues its performance of construction index (PCI), also for December.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics releases retail trade data for November, and ANZ Banking Group issues its job advertisements series for December.

Friday, January 7, 2011

Market Sentiment

Dow -26=- 2
Nasdaq 8 =1
S&P 500 -3 =- 1
Ftse -24 =- 1
Nikkei 149= 1
Futures -5 = -2
Market Sentiment -4
The Australian sharemarket is receiving mixed leads from offshore trading overnight, with differing performances on equities markets, while key commodities were lower.

Thursday, January 6, 2011

Market Sentiment

Dow 32= 2
Nasdaq 21 =1
S&P 500 6 = 1
Ftse 30 = 1
Nikkei -17=- 1
Futures 19 = 2
Market Sentiment 6
Signs are positive overall for the Australian market on Thursday, with mixed to strong leads from offshore trading overnight.

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Market Sentiment

Dow 20= 2
Nasdaq -10 =-1
S&P 500 -2 = -1
Ftse 114 = 1
Nikkei 169= 1
Futures 3 = 2
Market Sentiment 4
The Australian sharemarket is receiving mixed leads from offshore trading overnight, with equities markets flat to higher, and commodities significantly lower.

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Market Sentiment

Dow 93= 4
Nasdaq 39 = 2
S&P 500 14 = 1
Ftse holiday
Nikkei holiday
Futures holiday
Market Sentiment 7
The Australian sharemarket is receiving strong, positive leads from offshore trading, with both equities and commodities markets more buoyant overnight.

In economics news, data will be the Australian Industry Group-PwC Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index (Australian PMI) for December.